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How do you calculate projections?

Hey,  we like you a whole lot,  but we're not giving up our secret sauce.  We calculate Proj AHS through historic performance records for each surfer that involve conditions,  locations,  recent trends and the forecast.  We use that to predict Proj Pts through our brand new event simulator.  It's really neat and we'll be providing this premium data at Surf Stats Gold next season!

What does QSFW mean?

For this and all other inquiries regarding specific terms,  we've created a glossary page for you to reference.   If you can't find what you're looking for there,  give us a shout at and we'll gladly sort it out.

I found an error!

Ok,  smartypants,  where is it?  Seriously – we'd love to know when you find an error of any kind!  Quality is our top priority and if we don't hit the mark of excellence,  we want to fix it.  This means a statistical or grammatical error of any kind,  or if you simply hate something on the site.  Rear back and let us have it,  we'll all be better in the end.

Do you have QS stats?

Right now,  we don't have any live statistics for either Men's or Women's Qualifying Series.  There's a mountain of data there that needs to be entered,  but fret not – we're tackling it!  It may not be ready by the 2016 season,  but at some point next year we will have it posted.  We'll also be cataloguing the Men's and Women's JQS,  Longboard and Big Wave Tours thanks to your continued donations and our upcoming Surf Stats Gold Members (hey,  data entry and programming get expensive when there's so much... well... data).

I’m locked out of my account!

Ok,  calm down.  We can solve this.  Drop us a line at and let us know your username and email (if different than the one you're sending from).  We'll take care of it as long as you're not a robot (and please,  don't be a robot).

Where can I get updates for injuries and news?

Glad you asked!  You can visit our Injury Hub (in the menu) for up-to-date athlete status or join our Newsletter - no need to go anywhere!

Are you hiring?

You bet!  We're growing fast and looking to expand for the 2016 season.  We could use a hand in plenty of areas,  so see our Jobs page if you're looking to apply!  Freelance,  part-time or full-time,  just drop us a line and if it's a fit we'll make it work.

I love you guys!

Thanks,  we get this all the time - but it's not a question!

Why would I pay for projections?

We've received this inquiry a lot since we posted our Surf-Stats Gold content,  and the answer is simple - because most people won't.  There's a lot of free advice out there - Jimmicane's Passion Picks,  Ross Williams and Rosy Hodge's Start 'Em/Sit 'Em column,  Shea Lopez's Fantasy Surfer picks - the list goes on and even includes our own Surf-Stats Fantasy Outlooks.  But,  as we've mentioned,  these are all free and everyone has access to the same information.  We still think our free projections are better anyway,  but our Gold content is at a level the world has yet to experience.  You'll be happy as a clam if you Go For Gold,  and if not - we'll refund your few bucks.  We want to give you the best projections available,  but it's expensive and time consuming.  We appreciate your understanding in helping the cause!

If you live in Australia or the United Kingdom where surf betting is legal;  you stand to make a lot more in financial gains than you'll spend on our Gold content.  So stop waiting and subscribe today!


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2 thoughts on “FAQ

  1. Could you explain how you calculate the statistics for the various criteria in your research tools? For example, I assume you have historical statistics for 6′-8′ waves, and assume you use these to calculate the average heat score for 6-8′ waves, but how do you calculate Projected AHS and Projected Points? Another question is how you deal with surfers in their rookie year, since there may not be any history of how they’ve done at a certain contest. Thanks, I just found your site and love it, but am trying to understand it better.

    • Hi Bahboric, thanks for the questions! For the conditions AHS you are correct. A few years ago we realized the ASP (now WSL) didn’t have any historic data or stats for their athletes. They did have PDF files of all their contests, though, so we’ve spent 4 years transposing that data into excel for analysis (it’s been an extensive project!). The contest PDFs included conditions for each round, so we have been able to add those to the data set. Since the development of the WSL Heat Analyzer, we have been able to more accurately record statistics for conditions.

      As for the projections algorithm we use, it’s one that has been developed by professional predictive analytics providers for major sports organizations in the United States. Other than that, we can’t give out our secret formula!

      This also comes into play for Rookies. We have a baseline that we assume they will fall into based on historic performance by all rookies in the past, then we weight that with overall performance for each event location. We gradually reduce the weight of this baseline through the year and replace it with their actual performance.

      QSFW is a power-score based on each surfer’s performance at a location historically. This weights their advancement into the competition exponentially, as it is that much more difficult to attain a QF > SF > F > Win each consecutive round (field of 8 > 4 > 2 > 1). So the formula is QF Appearances + (SF Appearances*2) + (F Appearances*4) + (Event Wins*8). A maximum QSFW of 15 is awarded to each event winner while second place only gets 7.

      Hope this all makes sense and welcome to Surf-Stats! Our Portugal Fantasy Outlook is on the way!

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