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Contest Metrics – Margaret River

We have included the data for Jay Davies, Jack Robinson, Yadin Nicol and Jacob Wilcox in case they are added to the draw via a trials win.

All of our our 'career' average heat score and win % statistics are taken from 2013-2018 WSL contest seasons. They do not reflect the entire careers of surfers who have been on tour longer than that.

A successful fantasy player never relies on past results or projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel balances the metrics as well as your gut.

 

Margaret River Metrics 2018

Key:
Win % - percentage of heat wins from 2013-2017
AHS - average heat score across all heats 2013-2017
2018 win% - percentage of heats won in current season
2018 AHS - average heat score for current season
EAHS - AHS across all heats for this event 2013-2017
E.Heats - number of heats surfed at this event 2013-2017
4-6' - average heat score in wave heights 4-6' (2013-2017)
6-8' - average heat score in wave heights 6-8' (2013-2017)
8-10+' - average heat score in wave heights 8-10+' (2013-2017)
Left/Right - average heat score in breaks offering both lefts and rights (2013-2017)
Rights - average heat score in right-hander specific breaks (2013-2017)
Reefs- average heat score in reef breaks (2013-2017)
Proj AHS - projected AHS based on the data presented in this table
Proj Score - projected score for the entire event using AHS and win percentage data

* 2018 win percentages count a 2nd place finish in R4 as a win because it allows a surfer to progress
SurferWin %*AHS2018 win%2018 AHSEAHSE.Heats4-6'6-8'8-10+'Left/RightRightsReefsProj AHSProj Score
John John Florence65.4514.62510.4516.621714.6515.4616.6514.3715.215.4813.61104.797
Gabriel Medina65.9513.6362.512.6411.781214.4114.2813.8914.3413.881412.2194.017
Jordy Smith58.513.055013.1413.421713.7314.4110.2614.1114.6612.512.3281.312
Julian Wilson57.0112.5787.511.9214.171812.9513.2111.5312.9813.9412.9212.0679.596
Joel Parkinson54.5912.97401213.111613.6313.0412.1912.4514.6313.0212.163.525
Adriano de Souza56.0513.0442.8611.4513.42013.3112.6112.713.6613.9812.0211.7561.6875
Italo Ferreira52.9912.2577.7814.3913.74913.2212.5211.4313.0213.9912.3712.0563.2625
Filipe Toledo52.5813.1657.1412.7212.141313.4911.7511.6313.814.4210.8511.4560.1125
Owen Wright51.0513.347511.4711.941313.9212.2914.0212.8713.3213.2511.6446.56
Michel Bourez49.2411.747513.2813.062012.4611.3111.7711.2513.6312.2411.5146.04
Adrian Buchan45.5612.467512.3411.831313.313.111.912.4712.7112.8511.4545.8
Kolohe Andino46.5212.475010.1412.281512.9411.8712.6412.6912.5112.3611.0744.28
Jeremy Flores42.4212.775012.0214.381312.4413.612.3312.1713.2213.6712.1335.48025
Frederico Morais45.6112.655010.959.45211.6414.112.9712.2313.679.4710.4130.44925
Sebastian Zietz40.6612.082010.413.711812.4512.6111.3912.2613.1912.3511.4633.5205
Mikey Wright44.4412.665011.09013.7712.6710.4830.654
Connor O'Leary42.8611.79259.511.89311.5212.9711.4211.5811.3412.5110.6631.1805
Matt Wilkinson44.6311.134011.359.811011.5911.6511.2611.3712.8110.6410.229.835
Kanoa Igarashi41.7710.474011.1411.38610.9110.0310.3411.8711.0910.029.7827.873
Michael February509.54258.23010.19.547.8222.287
Willian Cardoso35.711333.3311.37013.281311.3410.7930.7515
Caio Ibelli35.3710.9809.8913.06811.3112.9714.1611.4612.8910.7410.7830.723
Conner Coffin35.810.7442.8610.4210.82711.9611.1814.2111.5712.9110.6910.2829.298
Yadin Nicol33.3310.7213.29410.7912.79.2612.9112.4410.9831.293
Jay Davies3012.7813.14813.1710.9614.1512.0513.5112.7811.5821.423
Miguel Pupo35.9510.999.431211.4710.878.911.7112.229.749.6117.7785
Ian Gouveia32.3511.3408.7512.09212.4411.6910.4711.3511.1711.7110.3819.203
Joan Duru29.2712.6011.788.27212.3113.77.9912.4512.7711.510.519.425
Yago Dora30.7712.36010.32013.910.339.4314.2310.329.889.717.945
Ezekiel Lau29.7311.5542.869.110211.5712.2910.5911.7712.349.779.8918.2965
Tomas Hermes31.2511.075010.66011.449.8211.7210.759.2116.578
Keanu Asing28.5710.409.367.35411.3310.025.8610.8111.319.388.8315.894
Wade Carmichael27.2710.6442.8611.47012.363.73611.974.878.2314.814
Jesse Mendes22.2211.122011.2110.37211.079.6711.6511.0810.379.717.46
Jacob Wilcox22.2211.5211.254.413.0712.7412.8810.4411.29.4717.046
Jack Robinson08.4812.0424.6312.195.0612.194.638.487.5613.61

 

Margaret River Place History

Empty fields denote absent/injured surfer.

Results only include WCT events at Margaret River, not QS results (the event has been running since 1985).

It should be noted that John John also won this event as a QS Prime event in 2012
Surfer2014201520162017EventsAverage
Michel Bourez1513546
Adriano de Souza9113547
John John Florence13213147.25
Julian Wilson1352947.25
Jordy Smith5139548
Sebastian Zietz1391948
Italo Ferreira13328
Joel Parkinson51331348.5
Owen Wright139539
Caio Ibelli51329
Yadin Nicol919
Kolohe Andino132552411.25
Ace Buchan1313913412
Miguel Pupo9131313412
Filipe Toledo9253312.33
Kanoa Igarashi1313213
Connor O'Leary13113
Ian Gouveia13113
Jesse Mendes13113
Jeremy Flores259139414
Jay Davies525215
Gabriel Medina525925416
Jacob Wilcox2513219
Matt Wilkinson2525925421
Keanu Asing2525225
Ezekiel Lau25125
Frederico Morais25125
Jack Robinson25125
Joan Duru25125

 

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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