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Contest Metrics – QuikPro GC 2018

Welcome back.

I may not have a brand new fantasy game ready to go for the first event of the year (dammit), but I still have plenty of stats.

In fact, I have back-logged all of the 2013 season into my databases so that all of the data and projections now draw from 5 full seasons of surf contests. Adding the 2013 season has not only added a greater quantitative scope to my averages, but it has also given me data on surfers such as Cardoso and Gudauskas, not to mention the old-but-new-again Keramas venue. I also went back through every season and refined my averages and statistics for greater accuracy.

I will also tweak the metrics as I go this season so that elements such as R1 success as well as event (5 years*) heat win percentages are available for analysis.

There will be one small concession though; I'm travelling light on the FS-specific data this year. This is simply because: a) it takes up a fair amount of extra time, which is a pretty tight commodity these days, and b) surf-stats will merge into Fantasy Surf Sessions as the year progresses, which will be a direct alternative to the FS game.

I know that FS is popular (I've personally played it for around 10 years), but it had to go. To make up for the cut, I've added the win% info, which will provide a fairly good gauge when crossed with Event AHS, Average Event Place and relevant conditions data.

Lastly, FSS had some very exciting news regarding prize sponsors today, which I'll detail in my QuikPro preview article.

Enjoy trawling and tweaking, and good luck!

*all of our our heat score and win % statistics are taken from 2013-2017 WSL contest seasons. They do not reflect the entire careers of surfers who have been on tour longer than that.

A successful fantasy player never relies on past results or projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel balances the metrics as well as your gut. Remember also that, technically, your gut has shit for brains.

QuikPro GC Metrics

Key:
Win % - percentage of heat wins from 2013-2017
AHS - average heat score across all heats 2013-2017
EAHS - AHS across all heats for this event 2013-2017
E.Heats - number of heats surfed at this event 2013-2017
1-4' - average heat score in wave heights 1-4' (2013-2017)
4-6' - average heat score in wave heights 4-6' (2013-2017)
Rights - average heat score in right-hander specific breaks (2013-2017)
Points - average heat score in point breaks (2013-2017)
Proj AHS - projected AHS based on the data presented in this table
Proj Score - projected score for the entire event using AHS and win percentage data

* rookie surfers with no WCT event experience have had their 2017 QS heat wins (total wins, not %) and AHS data added in the place of Win % and AHS values
SurferWin %AHSEAHSE.Heats1-4'4-6'RightsPointsProj AHSProj Score
Mick Fanning62.6113.5315.632014.9413.7415.3215.513.51118.89
John John Florence66.214.6814.111514.2714.6515.471513.28116.82
Joel Parkinson54.931315.412613.8813.6314.7714.7313.03100.34
Filipe Toledo52.4113.1714.172014.913.4614.5615.4913100.08
Willian Cardoso37.514.2314.05214.3914.1314.2315.1912.9781.7
Kelly Slater59.614.0214.682213.9313.8514.2914.6312.981.26
Jordy Smith58.6713.0513.671414.613.7214.7315.0612.8380.83
Frederico Morais44.912.9313.44213.5211.6714.9315.812.6579.67
Mikey Wright4013.9213.92513.914.0413.9213.9212.5462.7
Adriano de Souza56.4813.0913.782614.1713.2914.1414.412.5262.59
Gabriel Medina66.0713.6712.492014.114.413.9814.5512.4262.11
Owen Wright49.6313.4513.921513.7713.8513.5514.0612.4162.07
Julian Wilson55.8712.5913.531713.9512.9814.0614.1912.3148.01
Italo Ferreira50.9312.0713.591313.8613.2113.8413.7612.1547.39
Jeremy Flores42.1412.813.741413.9212.4313.3913.5712.0647.02
Joan Duru32.4312.6913.47214.0612.3113.114.1612.0547
Ezekiel Lau26.6712.1313.34313.9611.5713.5714.3812.0246.9
Michel Bourez48.1511.6713.441412.6612.4513.6713.8411.8746.29
Wade Carmichael09.1813.52161113.513.511.7233.4
Sebastian Zietz41.2412.1313.261512.5912.4513.413.2611.733.35
Kolohe Andino46.4512.5213.11912.8912.9812.6713.111.6133.1
Matt Wilkinson44.7711.1313.862312.8411.5912.8913.4711.633.06
Conner Coffin35.1410.7712.711012.3612.0913.511411.5732.97
Stuart Kennedy26.9810.4713.891012.5610.6212.2912.8511.1731.84
Caio Ibelli37.1811.0312.03812.0111.3113.313.3111.1620.65
Adrian Buchan44.1912.4710.37161213.2812.7313.1711.0320.4
Josh Kerr46.3211.7211.71512.9212.0512.3112.5910.9920.33
Connor O'Leary44.7412.0312.14512.1711.8811.8711.7510.7619.9
Ian Gouveia36.6711.6811.42311.6412.4412.2411.9110.6919.78
Keanu Asing30.310.4611.46412.111.3311.7212.510.5219.47
Yago Dora44.4413.26014.6813.910.4618.83
Tomas Hermes12.511.49011.7711.2611.2611.269.9417.9
Kanoa Igarashi41.8910.429.75712.5910.7811.0111.89.8917.8
Jesse Mendes2511.01011.6511.0710.379.0816.34
Michael Rodrigues*15*12.18*
Griffin Colapinto*19*12.2*

 

QuikPro GC Results History

Empty fields denote absent/injured surfer

* = older, 48-man contest format
Surfer2010*20112012201320142015201620172018TotalAverageEvents
Connor O'Leary555.001
Joel Parkinson595221355465.758
Adriano de Souza592253359617.638
Kelly Slater9151513255648.008
Stu Kennedy313168.002
Conner Coffin99189.002
Italo Ferreira9135279.003
Mick Fanning913133551313749.258
Caio Ibelli9132211.002
Miguel Pupo95325135511.005
Jordy Smith233132592598911.138
Gabriel Medina25131131336811.336
Julian Wilson139513225138011.437
Matt Wilkinson335135259129311.638
John John Florence13132513537212.006
Owen Wright1713525131318712.437
Kolohe Andino13251313297512.506
Josh Kerr1331391313258912.717
Ezekiel Lau131313.001
Frederico Morais131313.001
Ian Gouveia131313.001
Mikey Wright13132613.002
Ryan Callinan131313.001
Filipe Toledo132513256713.405
Wiggolly Dantas513254314.333
Ace Buchan99525132552511614.508
Nat Young1391313257314.605
Sebastian Zietz1325139137314.605
Jeremy Flores171391325131310314.717
Michel Bourez339931325132513016.258
Bede Durbidge25135255259816.336
Jadson Andre1713251325131311917.007
Kanoa Igarashi9253417.002
Patrick Gudauskas172525259223.004
Ethan Ewing252525.001
Jack Freestone2525257525.003
Leonardo Fioravanti252525.001
Wade Carmichael252525.001
Keanu Asing25255025.002

 

 

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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