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Contest Metrics – Pipe 2017

Why, hello there fellow stats fans,

It's been a while, no?

We kinda dropped off the face of the Earth there for a while, disappearing like Filipe's Sunset campaign. We've been busy though, just not on this site (unfortunately).

The big news for fantasy surfing and stats fans is that Surf-Stats is branching out. We have taken the leap and are well underway on our journey to create the best god-damned fantasy surfing site possible. That's right, we're making our own game:

 

The site is still being built, but the landing page tells you what we're about and, if you drop your details, we'll hit you up in early 2018 to run through the finished site and get set for the new season.

If you're wondering aloud why we bothered re-inventing the fantasy wheel when FS and the WSL have such a strong duopoly, then allow me to counter with the following criticisms of the existing games:

  • The games are too rigid, with no customised options for groups/clubhouses to set the gameplay how they like (think live drafts, modified scoring, single-event contests, Aussie/Euro leg mini tours, etc., PLUS we want to make it so that you can use the site to run your own contests live at your local break using friends instead of pros and live scores from the beach for heat totals)
  • There are nowhere near enough stats integrated into the gameplay
  • There are barely any prizes to speak of; actually, there are none at all from the WSL itself

On top of that, we saw an opportunity to link with local surfing bodies, such as Surfrider and Surfing NSW to name a few. We want to pay-it-forward, so to speak, so that our site's success gives back at a grass-roots level to the sport we love. We're super-excited to be running with this, and we hope you can join us for the ride.

But, I'm getting ahead of myself. We still have a contest (and a title) to focus on. Fantasy teams are poised for clubhouse victory (or, at least, redemption) and shit's getting real.

 

For now, I'm just dropping some overall Pipe stats to get everyone started, however I will probably be a lot lighter on FS data this event (because of time constraints more so than any perceived conflict of interest).

(For now...) our heat score projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

You may notice a some changes in our stats, such as winning % for the season as well as the 'form' AHS and heats surfed in the past 3 events. We have also split our projections into 'Pipe' (favours lefts), Backdoor (duh), and Proj AHS, which balances both.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

 

Pipe Metrics

AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
2017 HWP = heat winning percentage for the 2017 season,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form AHS = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
Form Heats = total number of heats surfed at the previous 3 WSL events combined,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+' size,
Reef = average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm of all conditions,
Backdoor = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm favouring Backdoor,
Pipe = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm favouring Pipe's lefts,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our overall algorithm,
NAMEAETEAHS2017 AHS2017 HWPALL AHSForm AHSForm Hts4-6'6-8'8-10+'ReefsLeft/RightRightsLeftsBackdoorPipeProj AHSProj Score
John John Florence81.1213.3115.637514.5415.51514.1715.3715.715.3814.3815.1714.9214.8214.7714.76135.81
Gabriel Medina87.8912.9314.0169.813.9614.151514.4314.413.114.0113.9514.1714.7213.8413.9413.9127.85
Kelly Slater70.1913.1512.6442.913.56013.3215.0313.9713.6213.1413.5514.1513.6513.7713.66105.18
Mick Fanning73.1410.6913.351.413.9812.571313.114.2714.6513.1614.0415.3412.9413.3612.9213.22101.76
Julian Wilson52.0810.7813.8560.512.7812.281212.9414.311.3913.3312.5314.112.6312.7412.7812.679.37
Owen Wright56.479.8713.4452.413.0511.77912.7412.4613.813.4612.7213.5514.112.5112.4712.5779.2
Leonardo Fioravanti11.7524.111.7110.781011.4313.5713.7213.2211.4612.4813.6812.5112.3712.5278.9
Joan Duru12.4336.413.6412.23913.613.857.9911.8813.713.112.6112.3611.9112.4578.41
Jeremy Flores56.5411.0513.4641.412.5712.7912.7512.4611.5613.0612.2413.0312.7212.3911.9712.3561.77
Adriano De Souza58.019.913.661.113.0313.451013.4312.8711.7512.113.4713.9711.2712.4112.2512.2761.35
Jordy Smith40.7510.7113.4961.712.7413.671113.113.9610.4811.8213.6314.339.5612.5212.6112.2161.06
Frederico Morais21.4410.7212.5147.212.8412.411212.8214.4712.9710.212.6314.9311.5312.4712.3412.261.01
Jack Freestone2313.3913.032512.6616.55611.9710.6111.1610.3314.0712.838.8612.3711.9712.1846.28
Connor O'Leary11.9544.411.9511.32912.0413.0711.4212.7611.5811.8713.0212.1211.8512.1846.28
Italo Ferreira35.399.9212.4240.912.8310.78813.2613.0811.6712.7112.6113.9412.4112.2511.912.1546.18
Joel Parkinson45.259.912.095012.749.79913.2812.9311.8512.4412.0914.3112.0212.1711.8811.9745.5
Kolohe Andino44.69.8712.5152.512.2212.771613.1712.1111.2112.1512.6812.4612.711.8611.5711.9545.39
Adrian Buchan38.288.8513.4544.112.1713.151213.1612.9411.7112.2712.0512.4412.6511.8411.4511.8845.14
Ian Gouveia11.8929.211.8910.34613.0712.2210.4712.3911.0912.2412.4811.9211.6511.8632.91
Filipe Toledo5110.6112.7755.912.6613.261013.310.9611.0410.8713.8114.459.6812.111.7511.8432.86
Conner Coffin40.5711.512.3331.312.2410.19711.8212.1114.2111.0111.313.5310.8612.0611.6511.7732.67
Sebastian Zietz36.659.312.7446.312.112.41611.912.4511.6912.1111.6413.1311.1311.7811.2311.632.2
Michel Bourez59.3510.512.7643.311.7110.9712.2411.4412.112.0210.7313.2711.2411.8211.4211.5632.07
Josh Kerr70.5210.0310.8717.411.6112.54911.6811.3610.0810.9212.0411.9610.7511.1910.5311.1630.97
Ezekiel Lau11.4725.911.4711.44711.9712.4510.599.3711.7713.579.0611.5310.9711.1119.99
Caio Ibelli15.937.9711.284011.4110.811011.3712.2414.1610.0811.4813.278.0411.1510.5210.7419.33
Kanoa Igarashi99.0411.5610.5434.411.8611.411410.7710.5610.349.3211.8311.018.7110.7910.3710.6919.24
Jadson Andre17.737.610.932011.4311.84912.0310.6810.7810.5811.6211.9211.310.6310.210.6619.19
Matt Wilkinson19.216.0812.2160.511.3411.14611.9811.2410.9810.1411.7112.9210.4110.459.8310.3518.62
Ethan Ewing10.7318.210.7311.59710.0511.639.848.5310.7811.818.3610.59.9910.1818.33
Bede Durbidge25.366.1612.1636.711.1912.11911.5611.178.859.8911.7213.639.710.389.7310.1717.29
Stuart Kennedy11.7310.5810.3116.710.598.5610.5210.819.048.9910.6812.189.7510.279.6710.117.17
Miguel Pupo20.256.5210.9533.311.0211.811311.1110.518.799.0511.5112.028.939.869.299.7416.55
Wiggolly Dantas12.154.8611.1928.111.158.68711.1511.697.6910.3511.3113.8610.419.869.419.716.49

 

Our results data below includes the past 10 years, but neglects quite a few years of data from Slater as well as other tour veterans such as Mick and Joel. I will endeavour to update this as soon as possible.

Pipe Results History

* = older, 48-man contest format
Surfer2007*2008*2009*2010201120122013201420152016TotalAverage
Kanoa Igarashi222.00
Kelly Slater91233511353454.50
Jeremy Flores9191395467.67
Joel Parkinson4917132131399808.00
Mick Fanning1791313393679.57
Gabriel Medina59132213447.33
John John Florence9135132595617.63
Owen Wright5139279.00
Sebastian Zietz5591313459.00
Josh Kerr1733132133559111.38
Julian Wilson1313511313589.67
Bede Durbidge1959251313131310111.22
Adriano de Souza917131313131139211.50
Ace Buchan5317525253132512113.44
Conner Coffin131313.00
Italo Ferreira13132613.00
Jordy Smith1751313251359113.00
Filipe Toledo2551395213.00
Michel Bourez331332513913111013.75
Nat Young9132595614.00
Miguel Pupo25951325139015.00
Jamie O'Brien533525138116.20
Kolohe Andino2525132539118.20
Wiggolly Dantas25133819.00
Mason Ho332536120.33
Bruce Irons171737252512124.20
Matt Wilkinson1337252513251315121.57
Jadson Andre13253713252513823.00
Frederico Morais252525.00
Stuart Kennedy252525.00
Caio Ibelli252525.00

 

That's all for now, but I'll leave you with what may well be the greatest Pipe final of all time, here.

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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