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Contest Wash-Up – France 2017

There's this pervasive philosophy within pro surfing right now that, to win a world title, it's necessary to 'surf at 70%', but I call bullshit.

John John buried that approach at Margaret River. Filipe delivered the eulogy in South Africa.

Guys like Josh Kerr, Julian Wilson and Jack Freestone have each been mesmerised by the siren song of conservative heat surfing, only to be drowned by the waves of progress, passion or plain, dumb luck.

It was Jordy's turn to succumb. Jordy, who came on tour with so much promise, who undoubtedly possesses some of the most impressive wave-dancing abilities in modern surfing, fell to the poisonous lure of the conservative mindset.

Enter John and Medina. They danced, they weaved, they adjusted and - most importantly of all - they pushed themselves. Were we not entertained? I certainly was, which is saying a lot considering the ungodly hours at which I was forced to watch in Australia. Fellow surfers should take note.

***

Wasn't France the ultimate antidote to The Ranch event? With heat after varying heat of unpredictable conditions that challenged surfers to either adlib or die, it was nicely juxtaposed with the wave pool event a few weeks back. Italo nailed what was - hands-down - the best wave of R1, only to total 5.6 in R2. Parko proved my scepticism wrong by making the quarters, only to play passive voyeur to Medina's success while bobbing around out the back.

Hand-wringers who wore the digital sandwich board of surfing's impending doom post-surf-ranch were either eating their words at the sight of the still-beating heart of surfing's unpredictability or patting themselves on the back for having celebrated the virtues of the uncertain.

Where do you sit? Is unpredictability the spice of professional surfing life? Vive l'imprévisible?

The truth is, fantasy doesn't mix quite so well with the unreliable. In fact, the whole projected-values-based-on-previous-results is as conservative as it gets. France is certainly tough on a statistician, but not as tough as Nick Carroll is when pointing out our flaws:

 

The truth hurts. I fucking picked Medina though.

Let's look at the minutiae:

 

John John

How good does he look right now? With Portugal and Pipe to go, he's surely the man to beat.

That said, he'd be the man to beat at any event given his form and composure. In fact, I was so surprised that he fell on two consecutive waves against Medina that I was forced to remind myself that he was human.

John's balance of refining the fundamentals while pushing progression seems to be the perfect blend for competitive success in 2017.

Medina

Medina is the King of France.

Like John, he knows how to balance fundamentals with the things that are just mental.

He beheaded John, overthrew Mick and stomped all over the plebs. He is right back into the title conversation now too. Could it be a John vs. Gabe Pipe shootout a la Kelly/Rob in 1995? Would Gabe be willing to high-5?

Filipe

Rib injuries hurt like hell; he did well to surf two heats.

I did find it very strange that the WSL made no mention of his injury before the contest began. It would have helped a whole bunch of fantasy players.

While Filipe is the only surfer to have two event victories in 2017, his suspensions, injuries and inconsistencies have made him far from a contender at this point. Maybe he could go back-to-back at Portugal/Backdoor? Probably not.

Will he ever put a whole season together?

Mick

A lot was made of Mick's push to up the progression ante in his heats lately. I for one loved seeing it.

There are two main assumptions that I glean from this development:

  1. Mick is still hungry to win. He isn't satisfied to just slip quietly into retirement on the back of a few 17th place seasons.
  2. Mick isn't afraid to identify weaknesses in his surfing and make the necessary adjustments.

2017 could just be a transition year for Mick...

Seabass

Is there a more well-tuned barrel-hound on tour?

Keanu

The returning champ was just a footnote, with regular programming now resumed.

Marc Lacomare

Threw some big names under the bus before succumbing himself. Completely neglected fantasy-wise.

Carissa

How bizarre was the 3 x Steph vs. Carissa match-ups in one event? Carissa was ripping the whole time and she won the heat that mattered. Like Medina, 'Riss has snuck her way into title contention (see our tables below) and could definitely take her good form to Hawaii.

Claims

Nothing too crazy for this event. John managed one, which is rare. Most of them were driven by passion or emotion, rather than a thinly veiled attempt to push the judges.

Commentary

Turpel was gone again. Pete was pretty good in his absence. I have been turning it down lately, to be honest. They can probably stop crediting Jack Freestone for Mick's airs though, sheesh.

Judging

Mick didn't actually beat Flores in R3, despite what the judges say.

Nat was very unlucky against Joel in R5 as well.

The judges' love for tens has seemingly waned, with several amazing rides missing the ultimate score.

 

By the Numbers

75 - John John's winning percentage for the season. Crazy.

0 - the number of R2 heats John has had to surf this year

17.81 - John's AHS for the QuikPro France (the next highest was Medina with 15.63)

2.07 - the score given to John's last wave against Medina in the SF, which was the biggest low-ball I've seen. Go back, watch it and tell me I'm wrong

1.2 - Parko's heat total in his QF against Medina (that was with 2 scoring waves as well)

+5 – places Gabriel Medina moved in the world title rankings after his win

94.44 - Medina's winning percentage in France over the past 3 years (17 wins in 18 heats, finishing 1st, 2nd, 1st)

0 - number of heats won by Wiggolly Dantas in his 3 x QuikPro France contests

0 – perfect 10s thrown out by the judges (despite some worthy contenders)

8 – surfers who have won an event in the past 9 contests (it's the same on the women's tour).

0 – percentage of WSL fantasy players who owned Marc Lacomare (rounded to nearest %)

11 - percentage of WSL fantasy players who owned Jesse Mendes (he was never confirmed to be in the contest)

20 - number of heats run on day 2 (R2, H9 through to R4, H4)

3 - number of days required to run the full event (equalling the record set at Tahiti)

 

Title Race

We promised some tables here, so see below for the men's and women's adjusted rankings. I have, for argument's sake, taken the two lowest scores from each title race (the women have already dropped their worst result after France) to see how things look heading towards the pointy end of the season. I have also added some projected high scores for the women so that you can play around with world title scenarios.

Men

SurferPointsRankingLowest score2nd Lowest scoreAdjusted pointsAdjusted rankingRanking Change
John John Florence499001175017504640010
Jordy Smith476002175017504410020
Gabriel Medina40750317501750372504-1
Owen Wright39850450017503760031
Matt Wilkinson3820055005003720050
Julian Wilson37700650017503545060
Adriano de Souza36600717501750331008-1
Filipe Toledo34950805003445071

Women

SurferPointsRanking2nd Low ScoreAdj. pointsAdj. rankingChangeIf 13thIf 9thIf 5thIf 3rdIf 2ndIf 1st
Sally Fitzgibbons5290015200477002-1477004770052900542005570057700
Tyler Wright51200233004790011479005120053100544005590057900
Courtney Conlogue50000333004670030467005000051900532005470056700
Carissa Moore47300433004400040440004730049200505005200054000
Stephanie Gilmore45150517504340050451504670048600499005140053400
Lakey Peterson42550617504080060425504410046000473004880050800
Sage Erickson42350717504060070423504390045800471004860050600
Nikki Van Dijk42000817504025080420004355045450467504825050250
Johanne Defay40000933003670090400004000041900432004470046700
Keeley Andrew3525010175033500100352503680038700400004150043500
Tatiana Weston-Webb3460011175032850110346003615038050393504085042850
Silvana Lima2845012175026700120284503000031900332003470036700
Coco Ho2685013175025100130268502840030300316003310035100

Clubhouse Results

The deadlines are too tight to chase these results for this event, but a well-deserved shout-out goes to our mate (or should I say 'rival'?) Francisco over at FST for winning the whole shebang in the WSL game. He runs a few different projection models simultaneously to test for success criteria, and his v.5 team was the best in the world. Well done!

Event awards

Best wave: John's backside air. Italo's was buttery, but John's was more critical (and just as smooth).

Best heat: Gabe vs. John (semifinal) was significant for the title/rivalry, but John wasn't fully on his game; there were too many falls to make it a highlight. John vs. Mick in the Quarters was my pick just because it rammed home the widening gap between the two key generations on tour. And because John was en fuego.

Biggest disappointment: Filipe's injury-riddled performance was pretty disappointing. Jordy and Julian were pretty ordinary too.

Best Manoeuvre: See best wave.

Most impressive: Pupo and Lacomare deserve praise, as do Gouveia and Nat for either making heats, causing upsets or surfing well beyond their anticipated AHS averages. John was the most impressive though, and it took a few uncharacteristic falls and a France specialist in Medina to narrowly beat him.

 

The Portugal stats are basically ready, I'm just waiting for confirmation of the wildcards.

Thank you to all of our readers who continue to donate via the PayPal button. Surf-Stats is completely run in my spare time and funded at my own expense; those donations keep my domain and hosting fees paid and also help me justify the nights spent on spreadsheets. Plus any donation, however small, will help me convince my wife that people actually read this shit.

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

3 thoughts on “Contest Wash-Up – France 2017

  1. Out of curiosity, what was the best team? You used to put the best team in your wrap up and I found it really handy 🤙🏼

  2. Haha, I’ll pass on the thanks.

    We started doing a ‘form’ column in our metrics table last event and have included it again for Portugal. It averages the heat scores from the previous 3 events to give you a comparative guide.

    Nice work with Lacomare; he was a great sleeper.

    Good luck at Supertubos!

  3. surfing also seems to be about form…. Maybe a table showing how they fared in past few contests ???…. to compare with particular contest history…. Marc Lacomare saved my measly bacon…….9% owned in FS…. also to Mrs M….. thanks for letting Balin carry out this important work…

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