Vans,a Division of VF Outdoor, Inc.

Contest Metrics – Portugal 2017

Our heat score projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

You may notice a few new categories in our stats, such as winning % for the season as well as the number of heats surfed by each surfer in the event since 2014.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

*The wildcards' data has been added, but they have not been seeded into our projections due to their limited data.

 

Contest Metrics

2017 WP = winning percentage for the 2017 season,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
# Heats = total number of heats surfed at this event from 2014 onwards,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our algorithm,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our algorithm,
NAME2017 WPAETEAHS# Heats2017 AHSALL AHSForm1-4'4-6'6-8'8-10'+BeachLeft/RightProj AHSProj Score
John John Florence7585.3114.091616.0514.6416.5214.1514.0315.6915.7013.7214.3814.45127.2
Gabriel Medina66.6750.9111.861014.1413.9914.8414.1614.3614.7713.10141413.85121.88
Jordy Smith62.22110.8314.21214.0212.8713.1113.8913.114.2410.4813.1113.8113.54104.29
Adriano De Souza63.6464.9312.141213.713.0612.7313.5613.4312.9811.7513.9813.7813.25102.02
Mick Fanning5081.6214.75913.5714.0513.7615.0913.1814.5814.6514.0314.0614.1389
Filipe Toledo59.3878.5813.481413.3512.813.1314.913.311.5611.0413.3314.3213.4484.66
Julian Wilson56.7637.7311.321014.1812.8613.7613.8412.9414.6811.3912.5312.9612.8981.18
Matt Wilkinson61.1130.3812.49612.7111.4711.8512.4911.9811.5610.9811.8411.8111.9775.39
Frederico Morais48.3964.313.76612.8712.9613.4413.3312.8816.8912.9713.1813.4113.5967.95
Owen Wright5530.1810.61413.8513.1912.7113.5912.7412.9813.8013.5813.4112.7663.81
Kolohe Andino51.5267.7713.081312.3812.1912.6112.2813.0912.1111.2112.7112.3512.6463.19
Joel Parkinson5060.5212.221212.3912.8110.4113.7813.5413.0511.8512.2512.2812.5562.76
Joan Duru38.71013.0413.9413.2814.0613.614.97.9914.4414.5714.1453.73
Italo Ferreira42.1181.6414.83913.0413.0312.7313.8713.2613.4611.6713.3213.3313.5551.48
Jeremy Flores44.4453.3612.271214.2812.7814.1814.0112.7512.911.5612.0312.6612.7748.54
Connor O'Leary45.16012.0112.0112.1512.0212.0413.7511.4212.3711.8712.2546.54
Sebastian Zietz44.4450.612.171113.0512.1713.112.1311.8612.7511.6911.2811.7112.0245.66
Adrian Buchan45.1615.537.76613.7512.2513.7311.5113.1613.1411.7112.0912.2211.7644.68
Ian Gouveia31.82012.6312.6312.8611.6413.0712.3410.4713.3711.9812.6335.05
Nat Young3038.4812.41812.112.2211.1612.3311.8613.0410.8712.6812.3212.2734.06
Conner Coffin31.0391.9911.5812.7712.3911.5712.3211.8213.7114.2111.8812.7712.1633.75
Bede Durbidge39.2947.3711.22712.6211.312.0314.5211.5611.518.8513.2912.1912.1633.73
Caio Ibelli40.7439.9113.31611.6611.5310.6112.3811.3713.0314.1611.0811.3911.8232.8
Michel Bourez42.8649.629.921513.0311.7711.771212.2411.9212.1010.3510.9611.231.08
Ezekiel Lau28012.1412.1412.5913.9611.9713.8510.5912.9314.3213.123.58
Jack Freestone22.7326.7713.39211.7612.2411.5612.7911.9711.3511.1611.9412.612.3122.16
Wiggolly Dantas3032.7912.15412.0511.3611.2313.1311.1512.657.6912.6312.0112.0221.63
Jadson Andre21.7434.511.43611.4411.5512.9912.3312.0310.7510.7811.611.9711.8121.25
Josh Kerr10.5358.5913.8810.7611.5811.5713.5211.6911.1910.0812.2112.2312.3120.93
Miguel Pupo2850.1712.41811.0411.0511.0712.3510.810.428.7911.9711.6311.5420.78
Kanoa Igarashi26.9233.3311.11310.5411.8610.8312.3710.778.110.3412.3512.3411.3620.45
Leonardo Fioravanti20.83011.9911.8312.6312.811.4914.113.7210.4911.6111.8520.15
Vasco Ribeiro13.08612.5810.411.6711.6711.820.06
Stuart Kennedy18.1852.8810.58510.910.889.4512.4810.5211.729.0412.4911.6211.2519.12
Mason Ho9.18311.6210.179.789.189.189.6116.34
Ethan Ewing15010.7710.7710.7810.6810.058.849.847.969.239.5516.24

 

Fantasy Surfer Data

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. Value$ ChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence122500001150000075000014125014.4525046.00
Gabriel Medina1100000010000000100000012425013.8517557.14
Adriano De Souza77500008250000-50000011725013.2515154.64
Jordy Smith1175000012500000-75000013525013.5415083.33
Filipe Toledo75000008250000-75000012125013.4412864.45
Julian Wilson900000010000000-100000011625012.8912778.74
Matt Wilkinson92500009750000-50000011725011.9712677.38
Mick Fanning550000050000005000009712714.1312540.00
Owen Wright87500008750000011925012.7610384.95
Frederico Morais52500005500000-2500009317513.5910253.92
Kolohe Andino850000077500007500009617512.6410176.73
Joel Parkinson7750000725000050000010115012.5510072.50
Italo Ferreira42500005000000-7500008512613.558658.14
Jeremy Flores52500005500000-2500008912612.778564.71
Connor O'Leary42500005000000-7500008917512.258459.52
Joan Duru525000050000002500008212614.148360.24
Sebastian Zietz7000000600000010000009617512.028273.17
Adrian Buchan55000005750000-2500009017511.768170.99
Caio Ibelli400000035000005000008417511.828043.75
Michel Bourez67500007250000-5000008315111.207991.77
Bede Durbidge50000005250000-2500008412612.167867.31
Ian Gouveia325000030000002500007010112.637738.96
Conner Coffin42500005000000-7500007310312.167665.79
Nat Young1500000150000006910012.277520.00
Ezekiel Lau30000003250000-2500006815013.104769.15
Wiggolly Dantas40000004750000-7500007212512.0246103.26
Miguel Pupo400000032500007500006612811.544572.22
Kanoa Igarashi4000000400000001512511.364490.91
Jack Freestone3000000300000006015012.314369.77
Jadson Andre30000003500000-5000006110211.814283.33
Leonardo Fioravanti325000030000002500006012711.854173.17
Stuart Kennedy325000030000002500005610211.254075.00
Ethan Ewing32500003500000-25000053849.553989.74
Josh Kerr30000003250000-250000508212.313885.53

 

Combined Event History

Key:
* = older, 48-man contest format
Surfer2009*2010201120122013201420152016TotalAverage
Conner Coffin222.00
Joel Parkinson35331359415.86
John John Florence9593131406.67
Italo Ferreira213157.50
Jordy Smith521325523557.86
Mick Fanning1131395113557.86
Filipe Toledo135113328.00
Bede Durbidge231313913538.83
Frederico Morais513189.00
Stuart Kennedy999.00
Adriano de Souza92513135135749.25
Owen Wright3513513256410.67
Julian Wilson515252556611.00
Sebastian Zietz13131354411.00
Kolohe Andino92513935911.80
Gabriel Medina13225135137111.83
Jeremy Flores352525597212.00
Kelly Slater171213251313139712.13
Josh Kerr331353513138512.14
Michel Bourez3395131399910012.50
Caio Ibelli13132613.00
Kanoa Igarashi131313.00
Nat Young2259256115.25
Matt Wilkinson91325925132511917.00
Miguel Pupo252591325510217.00
Jadson Andre9252513251311018.33
Wiggolly Dantas25133819.00
Ace Buchan1752592525252515619.50
Jack Freestone252525.00
Vasco Ribeiro333.00
Mason Ho131313.00
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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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