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Contest Metrics – QuikPro France 2017

Sorry for the lack of a Trestles wrap-up; we've got some bigger things going on behind the scenes and something had to give. Watch this space though; we've got something pretty big on the way...

 

All of our France projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

*Keanu Asing's stats have been added.

 

Contest Metrics

Key:

Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
Form = AHS from previous 3 WSL events,
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Beach = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on our algorithms
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSALL AHSForm1-4'4-6'6-8'BeachLeft/RightProj Score
John John Florence14.69107.1315.1415.8314.5916.5914.1514.0315.6913.7214.38135.11
Gabriel Medina14.31111.2314.4413.9613.9415.3114.1614.3614.771414131.66
Mick Fanning14.386.5215.2413.4314.0113.7715.0913.1814.5814.0314.06110.1
Joan Duru14.2929.6714.8413.0213.9313.5314.0613.614.914.4414.57110.01
Frederico Morais13.8512.9312.9815.4213.3312.8816.8913.1813.4187.27
Adriano De Souza13.6975.7514.413.8813.113.2413.5613.4312.9813.9813.7886.27
Filipe Toledo13.4854.0112.3513.8412.9215.6114.913.311.5613.3314.3284.92
Owen Wright13.4663.0314.0114.1313.2813.5113.5912.7412.9813.5813.4184.82
Jordy Smith13.3361.8712.4413.9512.8513.813.8913.114.2413.1113.8166.64
Italo Ferreira13.3359.9212.6713.5313.214.1813.8713.2613.4613.3213.3366.63
Julian Wilson13.2874.1113.0614.6212.9714.5913.8412.9414.6812.5312.9666.42
Ezekiel Lau13.2512.1912.1912.7513.9611.9713.8512.9314.3266.24
Bede Durbidge12.8373.1714.3312.8111.3512.5914.5211.5611.5113.2912.1948.76
Adrian Buchan12.8245.4114.3113.7212.2413.7111.5113.1613.1412.0912.2248.71
Conner Coffin12.7839.8713.2913.3812.5914.2712.3211.8213.7111.8812.7748.57
Kolohe Andino12.5884.0213.2312.3612.1812.1712.2813.0912.1112.7112.3547.81
Jeremy Flores12.536.9610.4614.3412.7914.7214.0112.7512.912.0312.6647.49
Ian Gouveia12.4912.3112.3112.3111.6413.0712.3413.3711.9847.45
Connor O'Leary12.3112.1112.1112.3712.0212.0413.7512.3711.8734.15
Joel Parkinson12.1225.219.8212.5512.8511.3813.7813.5413.0512.2512.2833.63
Nat Young12.0330.8210.8712.1412.2311.1612.3311.8613.0412.6812.3233.39
Jack Freestone11.9431.9910.6611.7712.2412.5812.7911.9711.3511.9412.633.13
Leonardo Fioravanti11.9134.311.4311.9711.8213.7212.811.4914.110.4911.6133.05
Matt Wilkinson11.8851.8311.5712.5311.4212.8312.4911.9811.5611.8411.8132.97
Jadson Andre11.7756.1511.2311.4111.5513.1812.3312.0310.7511.611.9721.18
Sebastian Zietz11.7635.8110.7413.0412.171312.1311.8612.7511.2811.7121.17
Josh Kerr11.7143.5510.3610.6211.5511.2613.5211.6911.1912.2112.2321.08
Wiggolly Dantas11.7119.139.5712.2311.4112.0213.1311.1512.6512.6312.0121.07
Stuart Kennedy11.4953.9510.7910.9710.9210.9412.4810.5211.7212.4911.6220.68
Caio Ibelli11.4541.6711.1711.5811.5110.3712.3811.3713.0311.0811.3920.61
Miguel Pupo11.3348.5611.610.7610.989.6412.3510.810.4211.9711.6319.26
Michel Bourez11.2928.89.9613.4611.8813.641212.2411.9210.3510.9619.2
Kanoa Igarashi10.924.838.2810.4911.8410.8212.3710.778.112.3512.3418.52
Keanu Asing11.3168.3812.0510.8812.1211.3310.4611.1910.919.22
Ethan Ewing9.3110.2410.249.6510.6810.058.847.969.2315.83

 

Fantasy Surfer Data

Key:

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. Value$ ChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence115000001100000050000014025014.6925046.00
Gabriel Medina1000000010750000-75000010817514.3117557.14
Mick Fanning50000005250000-2500009312714.3015133.11
Joan Duru5000000500000008012614.2915033.33
Frederico Morais550000047500007500009517513.8512842.97
Adriano De Souza8250000775000050000012225013.6912764.96
Filipe Toledo82500007250000100000013325013.4812665.48
Owen Wright87500009500000-75000012125013.4612570.00
Jordy Smith125000001175000075000014225013.33103121.36
Italo Ferreira5000000500000009512613.3310249.02
Julian Wilson1000000010250000-25000012525013.2810199.01
Ezekiel Lau325000030000002500007115013.2510032.50
Bede Durbidge525000050000002500008512612.838661.05
Adrian Buchan5750000475000010000009117512.828567.65
Conner Coffin5000000500000007710312.788459.52
Kolohe Andino77500008500000-7500008917512.588393.37
Jeremy Flores550000050000005000009012612.508267.07
Ian Gouveia30000003250000-2500006910112.498137.04
Connor O'Leary50000005750000-7500009517512.318062.50
Joel Parkinson72500008000000-7500009815012.127991.77
Nat Young150000015000000648512.037819.23
Jack Freestone3000000300000006215011.947738.96
Leonardo Fioravanti30000003250000-2500005812711.917639.47
Matt Wilkinson975000010750000-100000012125011.8875130.00
Jadson Andre350000030000005000006410211.774774.47
Sebastian Zietz600000057500002500008610311.7646130.43
Wiggolly Dantas475000045000002500007712511.7145105.56
Josh Kerr32500003000000250000508211.714473.86
Stuart Kennedy3000000300000005410211.494369.77
Jesse Mendes150000015000000597711.474235.71
Caio Ibelli35000004250000-7500008217511.454185.37
Miguel Pupo32500003000000250000597911.334081.25
Michel Bourez72500008000000-7500008415111.2939185.90
Kanoa Igarashi400000032500007500006812510.9038105.26
Ethan Ewing3500000325000025000049809.313794.59

 

Surfers' Event History

We have changed our format for this table, now showing the final PLACE that each surfer received for each event. When looking at averages, LOWER is better (closer to 1st place).

Key

* = older ASP events with 48 surfers and lowest place of 33rd
Surfer2004*2005*2006*2007*2008*2009*2010*201120122013201420152016Average
Gabriel Medina1525122.67
John John Florence25351537.00
Kolohe Andino5135937.00
Kelly Slater35317252515513257.00
Keanu Asing1317.00
Julian Wilson1713213513358.88
Italo Ferreira5139.00
Owen Wright9991359.00
Stu Kennedy99.00
Mick Fanning33213311131319510.18
Michel Bourez959559913132510.20
Filipe Toledo3925510.50
Jordy Smith1795313932510.50
Jadson Andre91313292511.83
Miguel Pupo135135251312.33
Ace Buchan17171333991313131312.82
Conner Coffin1313.00
Jack Freestone1313.00
Kanoa Igarashi1313.00
Leonardo Fioravanti1313.00
Sebastian Zietz131325915.00
Joel Parkinson9133333252313252515.64
Jeremy Flores171717173313913131392516.33
Caio Ibelli25917.00
Adriano de Souza173333317252513133917.36
Matt Wilkinson17252525991317.57
Bede Durbidge333333172171392525219.00
Josh Kerr172525253132519.00
Nat Young2525131319.00
Joan Duru33172525.00
Wiggolly Dantas252525.00

 

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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