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Contest Metrics – Trestles 2017

All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Hiroto's data has been added to the tables and projections, however Evan had no relevant statistics to draw from.

 

Trestles AHS and Trestles average FS score available from the FS forum posts of fellow numbers man McCovey.

 

Full Contest Metrics

Key:

Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points = average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering left-and-right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on Proj AHS x estimated heat wins.
SurferAETEAHS2017 AHSALL AHS1-4'4-6'6-8'PointsLeft/RightProj Score
Mick Fanning89.8615.3813.8614.1215.4813.1814.5815.5214.40134.77
Gabriel Medina83.4715.1713.9213.9314.2014.3614.7714.7414.03133.39
John John Florence66.3414.4915.8014.5814.0514.0315.6914.6413.70110.64
Filipe Toledo94.1016.5613.4612.8314.6213.3011.5615.1013.63109.33
Joan Duru12.8113.8313.7613.6014.9014.0714.4488.69
Jordy Smith123.0614.9713.8212.8213.6613.1014.2414.5813.7087.87
Frederico Morais12.4412.8112.6412.8816.8915.6612.7287.40
Joel Parkinson101.2014.6813.3613.0614.2113.5413.0514.6912.8186.90
Italo Ferreira60.3714.5713.6713.2413.9513.2613.4613.8813.5268.69
Adriano De Souza78.8214.1313.7413.0713.5413.4312.9814.0613.9668.51
Hiroto Ohhara27.2313.6213.6213.6213.6268.10
Owen Wright74.8414.1814.1413.2913.6312.7412.9814.1213.5867.79
Julian Wilson32.3411.1814.5412.9513.9412.9414.6813.8412.7549.39
Ezekiel Lau11.7511.7513.1811.9713.8514.1712.9349.36
Adrian Buchan80.8714.2713.6912.2311.6213.1613.1413.1112.4149.36
Wiggolly Dantas66.0014.5412.4211.4513.3911.1512.6514.3512.4849.24
Jeremy Flores33.0413.4014.2212.7613.9312.7512.9012.9512.2949.19
Bede Durbidge35.6614.2612.5111.2814.3411.5611.5114.2212.0148.79
Nat Young52.9414.1312.2012.2412.4011.8613.0412.9212.7035.55
Ian Gouveia12.5612.5612.1713.0712.3412.2913.3735.31
Kolohe Andino45.0412.9312.6512.2612.3513.0912.1112.6812.6335.16
Conner Coffin35.3311.7813.1212.5012.0211.8213.7114.0311.9634.66
Michel Bourez58.8914.0613.4711.8811.7812.2411.9213.3510.5034.28
Connor O'Leary12.2512.2512.2712.0413.7511.8612.3734.17
Matt Wilkinson28.8412.3612.6711.4612.5711.9811.5613.6911.8522.15
Jack Freestone43.4412.4211.5212.1612.5711.9711.3513.1211.9322.09
Jadson Andre41.9413.9811.0311.4511.9512.0310.7512.5711.6122.02
Leonardo Fioravanti12.0011.8312.6911.4914.1012.9711.2522.01
Stuart Kennedy84.5513.1911.0810.9712.8910.5211.7213.1112.5721.99
Caio Ibelli37.3912.4611.6611.5312.4511.3713.0313.5511.2121.96
Miguel Pupo60.9214.0610.5810.9312.4810.8010.4212.9911.7820.57
Josh Kerr37.0112.3410.1611.4313.3511.6911.1912.1912.2720.55
Sebastian Zietz22.1111.0612.8712.1312.1411.8612.7512.9811.4720.36
Kanoa Igarashi42.9412.1710.2211.7512.2110.778.1011.5612.7719.56
Ethan Ewing10.2610.2611.1410.058.8412.767.9617.33

 

Fantasy Surfer Data

Key:

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
$ Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. Value$ ChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
Mick Fanning52500005750000-5000009612714.6525021.00
Gabriel Medina107500001000000075000011217514.5017561.43
John John Florence1100000011000000013825014.3715172.85
Filipe Toledo72500008000000-75000011425014.2015048.33
Joan Duru500000042500007500007912614.0812839.06
Jordy Smith117500001125000050000013725013.9512792.52
Frederico Morais47500005500000-7500009017513.8712637.70
Joel Parkinson80000008750000-75000010715013.7912564.00
Italo Ferreira500000047500002500009912613.7410348.54
Adriano De Souza77500008500000-75000012125013.7010275.98
Hiroto Ohhara15000001500000013.6210114.85
Owen Wright9500000900000050000013125013.5610095.00
Julian Wilson102500009250000100000012925013.0086119.19
Ezekiel Lau30000003250000-2500006915012.998535.29
Adrian Buchan475000042500005000008317512.998456.55
Wiggolly Dantas450000037500007500007612512.968354.22
Jeremy Flores500000047500002500008917512.948260.98
Bede Durbidge500000047500002500008212612.848161.73
Nat Young150000015000000688512.818018.75
Ian Gouveia325000030000002500007310112.727941.14
Kolohe Andino850000077500007500009617512.6778108.97
Conner Coffin500000045000005000007610312.497764.94
Michel Bourez80000008750000-7500008915112.3576105.26
Connor O'Leary5750000525000050000010217512.317576.67
Matt Wilkinson1075000011000000-2500009925012.3047228.72
Jack Freestone30000003250000-2500006415012.274665.22
Jadson Andre30000003250000-250000588412.234566.67
Leonardo Fioravanti32500004000000-7500006212712.234473.86
Stuart Kennedy3000000300000005510212.224369.77
Caio Ibelli42500005000000-7500008917512.2042101.19
Miguel Pupo300000030000000567912.104173.17
Josh Kerr30000003250000-250000468212.094075.00
Sebastian Zietz57500006500000-7500008410311.9839147.44
Kanoa Igarashi325000030000002500006010111.513885.53
Ethan Ewing32500003000000250000457610.193787.84

 

Surfers' Event History

Losing Round Values
Final (win) = 1st = 10
Final (lose) = 2nd = 8
Semi =3rd = 6.5
Quarters =5th = 5.2
R5 =9th = 4
R3 =13th = 1.75
R2 = 25th = 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

# = total/average from 2010-2016
* = old ASP 48-man event format
^ = places/values were too different; final positions recorded instead
Surfer2006^2007^2008^2009^2010*201120122013201420152016Total#Average#
Jordy Smith9th9th33rd5.25.26.5101036.97.38
Mick Fanning5th17th5th1st6.55.26.545.2101.7539.155.59
Stu Kennedy5.25.25.20
Joel Parkinson5th33rd9th17th0.55.281.755.25.2833.854.84
Adriano de Souza17th17th9th5th1.755.26.545.280.531.154.45
Owen Wright5.280.54421.74.34
Filipe Toledo1.751.756.56.516.54.13
Gabriel Medina41.755.26.51.7519.23.84
Julian Wilson6.5481.751.750.522.53.75
Ace Buchan17th17th33rd17th41.755.20.56.55.21.7524.93.56
Wiggolly Dantas5.21.756.953.48
Josh Kerr9th9th5.245.20.51.75420.653.44
Michel Bourez5th1.751.751.756.541.75421.53.07
John John Florence1.755.20.580.51.7517.72.95
Italo Ferreira41.755.752.88
Bede Durbidge1st17th3rd3rd80.51.751.750.51.7514.252.38
Nat Young1.751.755.20.59.22.30
Miguel Pupo0.50.5441.7510.752.15
Kolohe Andino0.51.751.751.7549.751.95
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Caio Ibelli1.751.751.75
Conner Coffin1.751.751.75
Jack Freestone1.751.751.75
Jadson Andre1.751.750.51.750.5410.251.71
Jeremy Flores3rd3rd17th0.51.7541.750.51.750.510.751.54
Matt Wilkinson1.751.751.750.50.51.750.58.51.21
Sebastian Zietz1.750.50.50.53.250.81
Hiroto Ohhara0.50.50.50
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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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