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Contest Metrics – JBay Open 2017

Hey fellow Surf Statisticians,

You may have noticed (the 12 of you who read them) that the contest review for Fiji was M.I.A.

Yeah, sorry about that.

SS is a one-man-show these days, with little other than a love of surfing and a few rad-as-hell donors keeping me going. Which is fine; I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't want to.

Occasionally though, important things come up and the site needs to take a back seat.

Important things such as this little guy:

My wife and I now have 3 little champions to keep us busy, with our latest arriving a few days ago.

Why do I mention this? Well, things are going to be slower for the next few weeks/months. For instance, the metrics pages will see each table/area drop individually over the next few days. They should all be in place well before the contest starts though. Also, the full contest preview will be, um, shorter. I'll endeavour to throw an abbreviated one up in the day or so before H1 paddles out.

As always, thanks for reading.

Balyn

...

All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

Full Data and Projections

AET = average event total (WSL game points),
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points= average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Proj Score = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSAHS1-4'4-6'6-8'PointsRightsProj Score
Mick Fanning15.18131.1116.1713.614.0615.4813.0215.0715.5915.32139.65
John John Florence14.3481.1613.0915.414.4814.0513.815.7414.4915.1131.96
Gabriel Medina14.2189.3514.4913.213.7514.214.1514.2714.5113.84109.38
Joel Parkinson14.1169.9414.7713.2513.0314.2113.612.8814.6814.27108.68
Julian Wilson13.9692.4114.6214.5812.9613.9412.8414.5714.0413.9987.95
Kelly Slater13.9683.114.711.7313.3813.5113.0715.0314.1213.4787.92
Frederico Morais13.9212.2412.7512.6412.9116.0314.813.7387.71
Owen Wright13.8474.0514.7414.4313.613.6313.0812.9714.2413.5887.19
Jordy Smith13.7953.0613.0113.9812.8613.6613.614.1914.5414.2668.96
Joan Duru13.7412.6813.7613.7612.5113.6814.3668.68
Ezekiel Lau13.7312.0712.2513.1812.2914.914.7413.8868.67
Adriano De Souza13.6278.8713.1914.5813.2813.5413.6613.2114.113.9968.12
Filipe Toledo13.4247.1611.913.8712.9314.6213.3311.3114.9214.1850.99
Wiggolly Dantas13.3571.3414.2712.0711.3713.3911.3212.8514.3113.7350.74
Italo Ferreira13.342.5613.4412.2512.7713.9512.9711.4613.7213.7750.55
Bede Durbidge13.2837.2713.9313.0511.4114.3411.8311.3914.3613.6150.45
Caio Ibelli13.0444.1912.9612.7911.9112.4512.1813.3113.8513.4749.55
Michel Bourez12.7861.8713.313.4111.8711.7812.2712.3313.2613.2348.58
Sebastian Zietz12.7636.6413.0113.1712.212.1411.9512.8513.0513.1935.42
Jeremy Flores12.7623.111.5514.0412.7213.9312.7113.4512.8812.9735.41
Matt Wilkinson12.6359.212.8512.5811.4412.5712.1111.6613.6512.7735.05
Kolohe Andino12.5650.8612.4912.8912.3212.3513.0712.1812.7912.5534.85
Adrian Buchan12.5158.6612.0513.7512.2511.6213.3212.5413.212.4234.71
Conner Coffin12.4124.6412.3212.6212.3412.0211.2611.2913.3612.934.43
Nat Young12.3638.3811.0812.4912.3112.412.3212.5212.9213.0122.24
Jack Freestone12.2725.4312.7211.2812.0812.5712.119.2312.9512.722.09
Jadson Andre12.2528.6914.3510.5811.3411.9511.5810.9912.3311.6622.06
Ian Gouveia12.2512.3112.7112.1712.5913.2211.7911.8722.05
Josh Kerr12.2167.2312.5810.4911.5113.3512.2511.1912.312.0421.99
Connor O'Leary12.212.0812.4712.2711.7114.0911.7411.7821.95
Kanoa Igarashi11.9948.5115.1210.6211.8912.2110.959.2711.7210.9520.38
Leonardo Fioravanti11.9211.0111.3412.6910.6513.7711.711.7720.27
Ethan Ewing11.8810.5311.9611.1410.69913.8812.2520.19
Miguel Pupo11.830.5511.3411.6711.212.4810.9810.4213.1511.9820.06
Stuart Kennedy11.5821.1810.5910.9910.9312.8910.1111.7212.811.719.69

 

Fantasy Surfer Data

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. Value$ ChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
Mick Fanning52500006000000-7500009212715.1825021
John John Florence1100000011750000-75000014225014.3417562.86
Gabriel Medina925000010000000-7500009115014.2115161.26
Joel Parkinson9500000875000075000011615014.1115063.33
Kelly Slater70000007500000-5000009112813.9612854.69
Julian Wilson8500000800000050000010012813.9612766.93
Frederico Morais450000042500002500008212613.9212635.71
Owen Wright87500009250000-50000013825013.8412570.00
Jordy Smith1125000012000000-75000013725013.79103109.22
Joan Duru375000030000007500006612513.7410236.76
Ezekiel Lau30000003250000-2500007315013.7310129.70
Adriano De Souza92500009750000-50000013725013.6210092.50
Filipe Toledo70000008000000-10000009815113.428681.40
Wiggolly Dantas450000042500002500007310213.358552.94
Italo Ferreira4500000400000050000011312613.38453.57
Bede Durbidge450000037500007500008312613.288354.22
Caio Ibelli50000006000000-100000010417513.048260.98
Michel Bourez850000077500007500008915112.7881104.94
Jeremy Flores450000042500002500008610112.768056.25
Sebastian Zietz750000072500002500009310312.767994.94
Matt Wilkinson1100000010000000100000013925012.6378141.03
Kolohe Andino87500009250000-5000009517512.5677113.64
Adrian Buchan52500006250000-10000008717512.517669.08
Conner Coffin40000004750000-7500006610312.417553.33
Nat Young150000015000000658512.364731.91
Jack Freestone3000000300000006515012.274665.22
Ian Gouveia375000032500005000007810112.254583.33
Jadson Andre30000003250000-250000578412.254468.18
Josh Kerr40000005000000-1000000488212.214393.02
Connor O'Leary60000005000000100000010717512.242142.86
Kanoa Igarashi32500004000000-7500006110111.994179.27
Leonardo Fioravanti375000030000007500006012711.924093.75
Ethan Ewing300000030000000404411.883976.92
Miguel Pupo32500003000000250000637911.83885.53
Stuart Kennedy350000030000005000006010211.583794.59

 

Surfers' Result History

Who'd have thought Bourez and Wilko would have such a similar level of success at JBay?

Round Placing Value
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
^ = no event winner due to shark incident
* = old ASP 48-man event format
Surfer2010*201120142015^2016TotalAverage
Mick Fanning3.7581081039.757.95
Jordy Smith10101.750.55.227.455.49
Julian Wilson5.21.7586.521.455.36
Gabriel Medina5.25.25.215.65.20
John John Florence1.7589.754.88
Josh Kerr5.241.756.517.454.36
Adriano de Souza5.251.755.25.2421.44.28
Ace Buchan3.756.51.756.51.7520.254.05
Wiggolly Dantas4484.00
Kelly Slater1.751.756.55.215.23.80
Joel Parkinson0.56.581.751.7518.53.70
Bede Durbidge6.540.5113.67
Owen Wright3.751.756.51.7513.753.44
Matt Wilkinson3.751.756.51.751.7515.53.10
Michel Bourez1.7541.754415.53.10
Kolohe Andino41.751.757.52.50
Filipe Toledo0.51.755.27.452.48
Nat Young1.7540.56.252.08
Caio Ibelli1.751.751.75
Italo Ferreira1.751.753.51.75
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Miguel Pupo1.750.51.7541.33
Sebastian Zietz1.750.51.7541.33
Jeremy Flores0.51.750.50.53.250.81
Jadson Andre0.51.750.50.50.53.750.75
Conner Coffin0.50.50.50
Jack Freestone0.50.50.50
Stu Kennedy0.50.50.50

 

Heat Draw

The full details of ins-and-outs for JBay are available here, but for now the draw looks like this. It's likely that the final wildcard position will be given after the conclusion of the Ballito Pro.

 

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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

10 thoughts on “Contest Metrics – JBay Open 2017

  1. Congrats dude. I too missed the wash up, but understand you have better things to be doing. I have been throwing my kids on the nose of my long board for a few years, and now the daughters are into surfing with the old dude. Enjoy this tough time, as it soon ends.

  2. Congratulations on your new addition to the growing family.

    Looked for the ‘Wash Up,’ but never found it…

    Hopefully, you can continue to do the high quality Previews, since your candid comments are the (IMPO) best part of the info leading up to an event.

    In any case, KUDOS, for your great work.

    Jeffe

  3. roll on J bay….. Fiji was a disaster for everyone except for the surfer’s who stepped up…..Could Wilko be the first goofy since Oc to win in SA….? with not much variety but lots of it….

  4. Have 3 kids …..23, 20 and 19….they still keep me busy…but like surfing is a vocation… the bad sessions set you up to enjoy the good ones…

  5. Congrats to you and your Mrs on the growing grom army…. Is a houseful of great fun mostly …. I guess I was 1 of the 12 readers… props to your efforts….

    • Thanks Simon,

      We’re getting quite the clan now. We’re done though; three will be plenty to keep me busy.

      Appreciate the feedback; it’s nice to meet one of the twelve…

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