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Contest Metrics – Billabong Pro Tahiti 2017

Tahiti now has the unenviable task of following a truly epic J-Bay contest; one that provided a spectacle for fans and managed to raise many surfers' AHS for 2017.

Mind you, Tahiti can wow fans with the best of them. The success of this contest will depend on the conditions, just like your fantasy team. Let's see who has the upper hand...

 

All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

*Wildcards have been added and data/projections have been adjusted. Our modelling has also been adjusted slightly to reflect the forecast conditions.

 

Full Data and Projections

Key:
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event, based on our magic algorithm,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event,
EAHS = event average heat score,
Fiji AHS = AHS for 2017 Fiji contest (in similar conditions),
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+ size,
Reefs= average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game) based on Proj AHS x estimated heat wins.
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHSFiji AHS2017 AHSALL AHS1-4'4-6'6-8'8-10+'ReefsLeftsProj Score
John John Florence15.1599.5716.9414.0915.8314.5914.0514.0415.6715.715.514.66139.38
Gabriel Medina14.55126.3416.4213.7413.8513.9214.214.3514.8713.113.4714.6133.88
Owen Wright13.8899.4114.7814.6314.2913.3413.6312.8413.0313.813.414.44106.89
Jeremy Flores13.3185.0214.5113.0514.3912.8113.9312.8113.1611.5613.112.7102.46
Julian Wilson13.2751.4912.1314.9914.6612.9813.9412.9514.6111.3913.3112.7983.58
Mick Fanning12.9639.4910.7412.5713.8214.1115.4813.1714.5814.6512.8912.7181.66
Leonardo Fioravanti12.8913.4811.6311.6512.6911.1714.113.721313.4881.22
Joel Parkinson12.8751.5113.7111.4313.5613.1114.2113.621311.8512.411.9881.07
Adrian Buchan12.882.2814.9712.113.7612.2511.6213.312.5411.7112.0912.4664.02
Italo Ferreira12.6763.3613.3210.7813.3913.1513.9513.3212.9211.6712.291263.33
Connor O'Leary12.6412.9412.112.112.2711.8213.6111.4212.5912.9463.22
Joan Duru12.5821.110.5512.6812.8713.8613.7613.8214.657.9911.5812.6862.89
Ian Gouveia12.4812.3512.5212.5212.1712.8313.2210.4712.2812.3547.43
Kolohe Andino12.4769.1913.0812.1312.512.2212.3512.912.1811.2112.1312.4847.38
Frederico Morais12.2510.3212.9712.9912.6413.1216.8912.9710.311.838.05
Adriano De Souza12.1923.729.912.5814.513.2613.5413.613.2211.7512.3511.6946.32
Sebastian Zietz12.1640.5213.3411.3713.1112.1912.1411.9412.8511.6912.1911.1246.22
Michel Bourez12.0335.7610.4915.9513.5811.9111.7812.3511.9912.112.1511.5345.71
Nat Young11.7934.512.649.2712.4912.3112.412.3212.5210.8711.9710.8232.72
Aritz Aranburu11.7557.751410.3811.1811.419.867.9811.6211.7532.62
Josh Kerr11.6972.3513.699.1210.5411.5313.351211.1910.0811.1210.9132.45
Jordy Smith11.6534.329.0611.9514.312.9413.6613.4914.310.4812.139.7532.34
Conner Coffin11.5419.349.6712.7913.3812.5912.0211.9413.8814.2110.911.2832.02
Jadson Andre11.3644.4911.5812.110.9511.4311.9511.9910.7510.7810.4511.3731.54
Matt Wilkinson11.3328.649.5415.2412.9711.5312.5712.111.7210.9810.3410.8420.39
Bede Durbidge11.355.5511.5412.1313.0811.4214.3411.8611.438.8510.059.9820.34
Filipe Toledo11.2729.858.3314.6713.1314.6213.6711.5611.0411.1310.4320.29
Wiggolly Dantas11.139.0510.5911.0712.5511.4913.3911.3912.857.6910.0710.3219.99
Caio Ibelli10.9617.038.5212.7811.9112.4512.1513.0314.1611.4910.0319.73
Ezekiel Lau10.728.6412.1312.1313.1812.813.8510.599.328.6419.3
Taumata Puhetini9.34178.5112.348.5112.1712.58.518.5116.01
Stuart Kennedy10.3718.379.1910.4711.6211.2412.8910.8711.729.049.1110.1217.62
Miguel Pupo10.3718.899.4511.7211.6811.2112.4811.1810.428.799.359.717.62
Jack Freestone9.8314.837.427.1711.8612.2712.5712.4811.3511.1610.468.2816.72
Kanoa Igarashi9.4624.888.297.2810.6511.912.2110.879.2710.349.378.5916.08
Ethan Ewing9.127.9510.5310.5311.1410.6299.848.467.9515.86

 

Fantasy Surfer Data

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
AET FS = average FS score (with full credit to FS resident stats man McCovey's data: http://fantasy.surfer.com/forums/thread/?id=78542)
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. ValueChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsAET FSProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence1100000011000000014025013815.1125044
Gabriel Medina10000000925000075000010115115614.4717557.14
Owen Wright9000000875000025000013225014014.4115159.6
Mick Fanning575000052500005000009712710413.7915038.33
Julian Wilson925000085000007500001081509313.1812872.27
Jeremy Flores475000045000002500008510112213.0512737.4
Leonardo Fioravanti400000037500002500006412713.2412631.75
Joel Parkinson87500009500000-75000011115010012.9612570
Adrian Buchan42500005250000-10000008017512112.810341.26
Frederico Morais5500000450000010000009817512.610253.92
Italo Ferreira4750000450000025000010412610612.8210147.03
Connor O'Leary52500006000000-75000010217512.6210052.5
Joan Duru42500003750000500000721258212.588649.42
Ian Gouveia30000003750000-7500007210112.58535.29
Kolohe Andino77500008750000-1000000861758312.388492.26
Adriano De Souza85000009250000-7500001282507312.4183102.41
Sebastian Zietz65000007500000-1000000851037312.298279.27
Michel Bourez87500008500000250000911517012.0981108.02
Conner Coffin45000004000000500000721034711.758056.25
Jordy Smith112500001125000001352507811.8879142.41
Nat Young15000001500000065856511.577819.23
Josh Kerr32500004000000-750000478210412.197742.21
Filipe Toledo8000000700000010000001292506211.3976105.26
Caio Ibelli500000050000000991754011.357566.67
Matt Wilkinson110000001100000001372508111.1447234.04
Jadson Andre3250000300000025000060847011.544670.65
Bede Durbidge47500004500000250000831267211.0245105.56
Wiggolly Dantas37500004500000-750000681027010.84485.23
Ezekiel Lau325000030000002500007415011.224375.58
Stuart Kennedy30000003500000-500000581024310.394271.43
Miguel Pupo30000003250000-2500005979579.974173.17
Jack Freestone32500003000000250000681506310.44081.25
Kanoa Igarashi30000003250000-25000058101779.543976.92
Taumata Puhetini1500000150000009.343839.47
Ethan Ewing30000003000000040449.1937#DIV/0!

 

Event History

Round Placing Value
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour

* = old ASP 48-man event format (values and places differed)
^ = Bruno Santos actually won in 2008, not 2010, but his result was added as it is a significant factor in determining the consistency his success when competing at the event
Surfer2010*201120122013201420152016TotalAverage
Kelly Slater6.5101.75885.21049.457.06
Gabriel Medina5.21.751086.531.456.29
Owen Wright3.7586.55.26.529.955.99
John John Florence6.55.26.51.75827.955.59
Jeremy Flores6.55.25.24101.7532.655.44
Ace Buchan5.251.751.75105.21.756.532.24.60
Josh Kerr6.51.755.21.755.25.225.64.27
Mick Fanning3.751.75106.51.751.7525.54.25
Italo Ferreira5.21.756.953.48
Julian Wilson1.7545.20.51.755.218.43.07
Joel Parkinson0.50.5841.751.75420.52.93
Aritz Aranburu1.7545.752.88
Kolohe Andino0.55.20.55.211.42.85
Wiggolly Dantas40.54.52.25
Michel Bourez3.7541.750.540.50.5152.14
Jordy Smith1.751.750.540.5412.52.08
Matt Wilkinson1.755.20.51.751.751.751.7514.452.06
Bede Durbidge0.50.50.51.756.51.7511.51.92
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Joan Duru1.751.751.75
Jadson Andre0.50.51.751.7548.51.70
Filipe Toledo0.540.551.67
Sebastian Zietz0.51.751.751.755.751.44
Adriano de Souza3.750.51.750.50.51.750.59.251.32
Nat Young0.51.750.51.754.51.13
Miguel Pupo1.751.750.50.50.551.00
Caio Ibelli0.50.50.50
Conner Coffin0.50.50.50
Jack Freestone0.50.50.50
Taumata Puhetini0.50.51.00.5
Stu Kennedy0.50.50.50
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Balyn McDonald
Editor-in-Chief
Balyn grew up on the east coast of Australia, nourishing his passion for surfing through a diet of empty beach breaks, Taylor Steele VHS cassettes and poor amateur competition results. As one of the head writers/analysts for Surf-Stats, he is as comfortable tearing through spreadsheets as he is 6' left-handers.

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