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Contest Metrics – Rio Pro 2017

Image: Kanoa proving that Saquarema isn't just a left-hander

These projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included some extra details in our FS table this event, including price changes and season points data.

Note also that the Rio Pro has changed venues for this season, rendering previous event data less reliable. All averages relating to event scores and fantasy points are drawn from the previous venue and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt. Fantasy Surfer regular and fellow stats connoisseur McCovey did some great research into the QS contests held at Saquarema, and came up with some interesting data, which we have included below as well as linked here. We have not checked nor verified his data, but he is generally bang-on with his research so we're happy to rely on his numbers.

MOST MPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

A full contest preview will be posted in a few days.

 

Rio Pro Projections

Key:
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event*,
EAHS = event average heat score*,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
Beachies = average heat score in conditions offering beach break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Lefts/Rights = average heat score in conditions offering both left and right-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game)
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSALL AHS1-4'4-6'BeachiesLeftsLefts/RightsProj Score
John John Florence14.2473.7712.916.8314.8414.0814.1414.1614.8614.13130.97
Gabriel Medina14.1666.5414.5512.5513.5914.2513.7913.8114.8913.84130.24
Joan Duru1412.2313.5413.4712.5114.8414.84107.82
Kelly Slater13.4963.1712.4812.1813.4913.5113.1612.4215.4113.14103.89
Mick Fanning13.4338.5610.9213.6714.0715.2513.0513.8312.7614.3984.6
Filipe Toledo13.1483.6215.0914.3513.0514.3813.613.6410.4314.0482.8
Frederico Morais13.0912.7112.913.0412.7513.413.2712.7182.48
Owen Wright13.0749.6612.0813.9213.2113.4912.7412.4814.3412.4882.35
Ezekiel Lau12.8612.9312.9313.3412.2964.28
Adriano De Souza12.8365.7913.2114.5813.2813.5313.2813.1311.4013.0964.13
Jeremy Flores12.5731.1212.7914.7412.8913.9412.8411.7312.5812.0862.87
Kolohe Andino12.5147.7411.4813.2612.4112.2213.1212.7712.5912.6662.57
Joel Parkinson12.543.3911.7613.5413.114.2313.5611.5912.1612.3347.49
Julian Wilson12.4426.8311.0414.8313.0313.8912.9112.2312.0612.5247.28
Ethan Ewing12.4212.2512.2514.3210.6947.19
Jordy Smith12.2550.812.5514.6113.0213.6513.8512.789.0213.5746.54
Jack Freestone12.14110.6713.8312.7912.5812.8212.1113.039.4013.0146.12
Nat Young11.9452.9812.1512.7812.3912.2312.1611.9511.3311.9945.38
Ian Gouveia11.9211.9511.9511.4212.3933.08
Bede Durbidge11.996.8213.4613.1511.4414.4211.6613.089.2611.4633.03
Josh Kerr11.952.6311.939.9511.3813.0612.3111.7711.5111.8633.02
Adrian Buchan11.828.8711.0213.7512.2511.6212.7910.9812.5811.4132.74
Connor O'Leary11.7511.711.712.1411.4132.6
Sebastian Zietz11.6847.7611.5614.3912.5112.4612.4411.2811.0411.5332.41
Caio Ibelli11.551.3810.2813.7912.2413.0612.4111.7410.0311.9320.7
Jadson Andre11.4749.0611.949.6611.1112.1511.1711.5211.1211.5520.64
Wiggolly Dantas11.4534.4113.0511.5211.2313.0511.0411.5910.0811.3720.61
Conner Coffin11.3822.5711.2912.8112.412.1311.2611.889.7712.0420.48
Matt Wilkinson11.2347.2611.7111.7911.2412.9911.2911.699.3811.720.21
Kanoa Igarashi11.0539.7313.2410.6611.910.4810.6110.889.9011.7119.9
Leonardo Fioravanti10.9938.79.6510.4411.0513.099.4910.7212.2318.69
Miguel Pupo10.9439.610.8711.1911.0812.5511.2811.629.0311.3618.6
Stuart Kennedy10.8435.8411.9510.1610.5112.579.8710.979.7711.1318.42
Michel Bourez10.6775.927.7513.811.9712.0412.2410.5710.0510.7718.13
Jesse Mendes10.5510.3710.3711.0710.3717.93

 

Rio Pro FS

Key:
Value Prev = surfer's price ($) for previous contest
Value = current price
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValue PrevValueChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence1250000012500000018425014.2425050
Gabriel Medina105000009750000-7500008915014.1617555.71
Joan Duru3000000325000025000054821415121.52
Kelly Slater90000008500000-5000009612813.4915056.67
Mick Fanning450000052500007500008512713.4312841.02
Filipe Toledo8000000850000050000010615113.1412766.93
Frederico Morais325000040000007500008312613.0912631.75
Owen Wright8500000875000025000015925013.112570
Ezekiel Lau3000000400000010000009415012.8610338.83
Adriano De Souza8250000875000050000011712612.8310285.78
Jeremy Flores375000040000002500008910112.5710139.6
Kolohe Andino1100000010250000-75000011717512.51100102.5
Joel Parkinson8000000825000025000010112712.58695.93
Julian Wilson82500007750000-5000009110212.448591.18
Ethan Ewing300000030000000424412.428435.71
Jordy Smith1100000012000000100000016025012.2583144.58
Jack Freestone40000003250000-7500008115012.148239.63
Nat Young150000015000000657911.948118.52
Ian Gouveia35000003000000-500000698311.928037.5
Bede Durbidge32500003500000250000698611.97944.3
Josh Kerr55000004750000-750000394111.97860.9
Adrian Buchan55000005250000-250000718411.87768.18
Connor O'Leary5000000500000009312511.757665.79
Sebastian Zietz750000077500002500009510311.6875103.33
Caio Ibelli55000006500000100000011217511.547138.3
Jadson Andre300000030000000517711.474665.22
Wiggolly Dantas325000037500005000006010211.454583.33
Conner Coffin62500005500000-7500008310311.3844125
Matt Wilkinson97500009250000-5000009817511.2343215.12
Kanoa Igarashi42500003500000-750000568011.054283.33
Leonardo Fioravanti300000030000000444710.994173.17
Miguel Pupo45000003750000-750000667910.944093.75
Stuart Kennedy42500003500000-750000517610.843989.74
Michel Bourez9000000850000008512710.6738223.68
Jesse Mendes150000015000000777710.553740.54

 

Rio Pro Event History

Round Placing Points
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
Surfer20122013201420152016TotalAverage
Jack Freestone888
John John Florence101.7541025.756.44
Michel Bourez44104225.5
Italo Ferreira6.5410.55.25
Filipe Toledo5.21.7510420.955.24
Adriano de Souza5.2841.756.525.455.09
Kelly Slater5.26.51.7513.454.48
Mick Fanning6.56.50.5417.54.38
Jordy Smith4105.20.51.7521.454.29
Bede Durbidge1.751.755.2816.74.18
Caio Ibelli444
Josh Kerr6.51.7545.20.517.953.59
Joel Parkinson81.7540.514.253.56
Sebastian Zietz5.25.21.751.7513.93.48
Gabriel Medina0.56.51.751.756.5173.4
Nat Young45.21.751.7512.73.18
Kolohe Andino1.751.7580.50.512.52.5
Owen Wright1.750.55.27.452.48
Ace Buchan1.755.21.751.750.510.952.19
Jadson Andre0.51.755.20.57.951.99
Julian Wilson5.21.751.750.50.59.71.94
Miguel Pupo1.751.750.50.55.29.71.94
Stu Kennedy1.751.751.75
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Leonardo Fioravanti1.751.751.75
Matt Wilkinson0.50.50.56.50.58.51.7
Jeremy Flores41.750.51.750.58.51.7
Wiggolly Dantas1.750.52.251.13
Conner Coffin0.50.50.5

 

 

 

 

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