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Contest Metrics – OuterKnown Fiji Pro 2017

Image: Owen Wright on his way to another perfect 10 at the 2015 event

All projections and stats are taken from 2014-2017 WSL contest data.

Some 2017 rookies include data from previous WSL events, but many do not have relevant results in significant categories, including data for this particular venue. Their modelling is much less reliable and they may have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by a small sample size.

We have included extra details in our FS table, including price changes and season points data.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions data that you deem most relevant and pick out a team that you feel matches.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

 

A full contest preview will be posted in a few days.

 

Fiji Projections

Key:
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event,
AET = average event total (WSL game points) for event*,
EAHS = event average heat score*,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score,
ALL AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons),
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10'+ = heat average in waves of 8-10'+ size,
Reefs= average heat score in conditions offering reef break waves,
Lefts = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Proj Score= total projected score for the event (WSL game)
SurferProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSALL AHS1-4'4-6'6-8'8-10+'ReefsLeftsProj Score
John John Florence14.8783.4713.5815.7314.5614.0513.8315.7415.915.7514.86136.8
Kelly Slater14.2191.7014.9612.1813.4913.5113.1614.8614.713.515.41130.73
Gabriel Medina13.9796.9215.0813.0613.7214.214.0514.2712.7212.7714.89107.6
Mick Fanning13.7780.4213.7713.8614.1215.4813.0815.0714.7512.6612.76106.03
Owen Wright13.56100.1815.0414.3913.3713.6313.0412.9713.7313.1614.3485.46
Frederico Morais13.2612.7212.9112.6413.0416.0315.510.0913.2783.57
Italo Ferreira13.1262.8713.3413.7213.2613.9513.3813.5311.7913.0512.6182.22
Ezekiel Lau13.0412.9312.9313.1812.2916.83131082.15
Joel Parkinson13.0379.4713.6313.7113.1414.2113.6413.4512.2512.3312.1659.49
Julian Wilson12.8958.6412.3214.4812.9413.9412.714.4911.1712.8912.0664.98
Jeremy Flores12.8164.0613.4014.2912.7813.9312.7212.0712.4113.2312.5863.6
Adriano De Souza12.7866.7812.8815.0813.413.5413.7113.2111.9512.4511.464.09
Kolohe Andino12.5655.7214.0713.0812.3612.3513.1212.1911.512.2912.5947.34
Adrian Buchan12.5360.8113.1314.1612.3511.6213.3212.7611.8512.0212.5847.9
Jordy Smith12.5144.5314.4814.4912.9913.6613.7114.1910.5512.289.0247.09
Nat Young12.2961.6813.2413.312.5212.412.3212.9911.4612.2911.3347.1
Ian Gouveia12.1512.3112.3112.1712.3811.6712.0946.18
Sebastian Zietz12.0833.3011.0913.6212.3212.1412.312.5512.3612.6211.0442.38
Caio Ibelli11.9521.6310.8212.7911.9112.4512.1813.3114.1611.4910.0333.21
Leonardo Fioravanti11.9310.411.0312.699.4913.9914.8310.9133.09
Joan Duru11.8912.6913.7713.7613.5912.038.2733
Filipe Toledo11.8142.6110.7913.8712.9314.6213.3311.3111.0411.1310.4330.29
Connor O'Leary11.8011.8711.8712.2711.5111.6411.8932.73
Josh Kerr11.7035.4411.2010.8411.613.3512.2511.6110.5811.4911.5132.38
Jack Freestone11.4423.1011.5512.3112.4212.5712.1112.6811.069.420.52
Michel Bourez11.4269.2611.0612.7811.7111.7812.2411.1411.7711.9110.0520.62
Conner Coffin11.1523.577.8612.5812.3212.0211.2612.2813.8610.559.7720.55
Jadson Andre11.0945.8712.6810.211.2411.9511.5810.710.539.9111.1219.23
Wiggolly Dantas10.9960.4111.0612.3211.4313.3911.35138.249.4710.0820.03
Bede Durbidge10.9337.4512.4913.2911.4714.3411.75119.369.769.2619.47
Kanoa Igarashi10.6423.477.8211.4512.1612.2110.9511.4111.89.619.918.09
Ethan Ewing10.6311.1811.1811.1410.6912.778.9718.07
Matt Wilkinson10.5549.1310.9611.9211.2712.5711.9210.2410.98.899.3817.93
Stuart Kennedy10.1121.5010.7511.1210.9912.899.8711.899.177.229.7717.19
Miguel Pupo10.0228.1911.3511.6611.212.4811.289.97.638.619.0317.04

 

Fiji FS

Value = current price
Prev Value= surfer's price for previous contest
Change = difference between two contest values
AVG Pts = average FS points for season
High Pts = best FS points result for season
Proj AHS = projected average heat score for event
Proj Score = estimated FS score for current event
$1000/point = relative value of surfer based on current price vs. projected score
NAMEValuePrev. Value$ ChangeAVG PtsHigh PtsProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence1175000012500000-75000015725014.8725047.00
Kelly Slater75000008500000-10000009612814.2117542.86
Gabriel Medina1000000097500002500009315013.9715166.23
Mick Fanning600000052500007500009512713.7715040.00
Owen Wright9250000875000050000015225013.5612872.27
Frederico Morais425000040000002500008412613.2612733.46
Italo Ferreira40000005000000-100000012612613.0512625.79
Ezekiel Lau32500004000000-7500008215013.0412570.00
Joel Parkinson8750000825000050000010712713.0310377.67
Julian Wilson800000077500002500009310212.8910241.67
Jeremy Flores425000040000002500008610112.8110196.53
Adriano De Souza97500008750000100000015125012.7810092.50
Kolohe Andino925000010250000-10000009917512.568672.67
Adrian Buchan6250000525000010000009717512.5385141.18
Jordy Smith1200000012000000015225012.518417.86
Nat Young150000015000000708512.298339.16
Ian Gouveia32500003000000250000728312.158288.41
Sebastian Zietz72500007750000-5000009110312.088174.07
Caio Ibelli60000006500000-50000010417511.958037.50
Leonardo Fioravanti300000030000000434711.937937.97
Joan Duru30000003250000-250000518211.8978102.56
Filipe Toledo80000008500000-5000009815111.817764.94
Connor O'Leary5000000500000009012511.807665.79
Josh Kerr50000004750000250000508211.707540.00
Jack Freestone30000003250000-2500007215011.4447164.89
Michel Bourez77500008500000-7500007412711.4246103.26
Conner Coffin47500005500000-7500007210311.154572.22
Jadson Andre32500003000000250000598411.094496.59
Wiggolly Dantas425000037500005000007110210.994387.21
Bede Durbidge37500003500000250000738610.934289.29
Kanoa Igarashi400000035000005000006810110.644197.56
Ethan Ewing300000030000000414410.634075.00
Matt Wilkinson10000000925000075000011117510.5539256.41
Stuart Kennedy30000003500000-500000507610.113878.95
Miguel Pupo30000003750000-750000607910.023781.08

 

Fiji History

Surfer20122013201420152016TotalAverage   
Jack Freestone0.50.50.5
Kelly Slater10105.246.535.77.14
Gabriel Medina80.5101.751030.256.05
Owen Wright4410186.00
Mick Fanning6.585.245.228.95.78
John John Florence5.26.55.25.222.15.53
Wiggolly Dantas5.25.210.45.20
Joel Parkinson45.245.218.44.60
Adriano de Souza5.20.55.21.755.217.853.57
Nat Young481.750.514.253.56
Italo Ferreira5.21.756.953.48
Julian Wilson5.21.751.7580.517.23.44
Jeremy Flores1.7541.756.51.7515.753.15a
Michel Bourez0.50.56.5411.52.88
Kolohe Andino0.546.51.750.513.252.65
Jordy Smith1.755.21.751.7510.452.61
Ace Buchan1.750.51.751.756.512.252.45
Josh Kerr1.755.20.50.5411.952.39
Sebastian Zietz5.21.751.750.59.22.30
Matt Wilkinson0.51.750.50.5811.252.25
Jadson Andre0.51.7546.252.08
Filipe Toledo0.541.751.7582.00
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Conner Coffin1.751.751.75
Bede Durbidge1.750.51.751.755.751.44
Miguel Pupo1.751.750.50.51.756.251.25
Caio Ibelli0.50.50.50
Stu Kennedy0.50.50.50
Tevita Gukilau0.50.50.50

 

Previous Top Surfers

Heat Draw

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Surf-Stats
Editor-in-Chief at Surf-Stats.com
We are surfers and statistics nerds with a passion for fantasy sports. Don't worry, we can't imagine what we look like either.

2 thoughts on “Contest Metrics – OuterKnown Fiji Pro 2017

  1. Great work Surf-Stats! Can we please have these Fiji Projections with Italo in the draw? It looks like Jesse Mendes is still in the stats instead of Italo, but I think Italo is expected to return for Fiji. Thanks!

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