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Data and Projections – Bells 2017

These projections and statistics use the 2014-2017 contest data. 2017 rookies include some data from previous WSL events where applicable and some data from the 2016 WQS. This means that they have much less reliable modelling and have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by their small sample size. Many also have no previous data that is specific to this event or its conditions.

MOST MPORTANTLY, don't rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the particular conditions columns that you deem most relevant and pick out the data that you believe to be of most importance.

Scroll down for overall/WSL data, Fantasy Surfer data, a heat draw and the list of previous winners.

We will try to get a full event article live soon, but the turn-around for Bells is very short...

Bells Projections

AET = average event total (WSL game points),
EAHS = event average heat score,
2017 AHS = 2017 season average heat score
AHS = career average heat score (using 2014-17 seasons)
1-4' = heat average in waves of 1-4' size,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
Points= average heat score in conditions offering point break waves,
Rights = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
NAMEProj AHSAETEAHS2017 AHSALL AHS1-4'4-6'6-8'PointsRightsProj Score
John John Florence14.5163.7813.8616.7214.8114.0813.7815.9514.2815.09133.48
Mick Fanning14.36119.4814.4312.4313.7615.2511.5814.1715.2214.76132.09
Joel Parkinson13.7470.0413.6612.8612.9314.2312.3813.0214.6514.12105.81
Jordy Smith13.7299.1614.0213.5712.7613.6513.6313.3713.9613.93105.65
Julian Wilson13.6574.3814.0213.8512.7813.8912.0114.4913.9113.7786.02
Gabriel Medina13.6361.5112.5211.6713.3714.2512.6214.2714.5813.7885.84
Kelly Slater13.5666.3613.2911.5213.3313.5112.2514.8614.1113.4285.42
Filipe Toledo13.3642.2414.3612.8212.6714.3812.39.6314.2113.7484.16
Owen Wright13.1583.5613.1913.2313.213.4911.112.214.1313.4265.73
Adriano De Souza13.1380.811.7514.3113.2113.5312.312.8514.0313.9165.63
Bede Durbidge13.1125.8415.1712.1811.1914.429.461114.1613.265.56
Sebastian Zietz12.9342.2413.5914.3812.5112.4612.3312.3813.0313.1864.64
Joan Duru12.9210.8712.8613.4712.5113.4711.3149.09
Jack Freestone12.8212.1612.3712.8211.2312.6612.5748.71
Nat Young12.6673.4813.1312.1412.2312.2311.8212.9912.6412.8748.1
Conner Coffin12.6292.0315.0411.5211.9712.138.712.2812.9612.5847.97
Jeremy Flores12.4635.1710.9314.4312.8213.9412.5112.0712.7812.947.33
Connor O'Leary12.2212.0212.4412.1412.412.1412.0546.44
Frederico Morais12.2111.4512.4813.049.9813.4411.4433.89
Wiggolly Dantas12.1754.9912.499.5610.7413.059.2311.4313.4912.6433.77
Adrian Buchan12.1727.3911.5613.0512.0711.6211.312.7613.1512.2433.76
Kolohe Andino12.1628.7111.4912.5212.2212.2212.1212.1912.4812.4733.75
Caio Ibelli12.1166.711.6512.6611.8713.0610.2311.521312.5333.59
Ethan Ewing12.0711.6512.5214.325.1714.3211.6533.48
Michel Bourez11.9941.1510.6512.8811.7412.0411.911.1412.7813.1121.58
Matt Wilkinson11.9759.9411.311.2611.1112.999.6610.2413.7912.7921.55
Ezekiel Lau11.9711.6712.0513.34713.3412.0121.55
Ian Gouveia11.9111.7612.4411.4212.511.4211.6921.45
Jadson Andre11.7833.9112.189.9911.1912.1510.4610.712.7311.7421.2
Josh Kerr11.7547.3611.228.210.9413.0611.9311.6111.9611.7921.15
Leonardo Fioravanti11.539.9110.7913.095.9913.9911.8911.519.6
Miguel Pupo11.3428.7510.589.7410.7212.559.469.913.111.7119.28
Stuart Kennedy10.9632.2710.768.799.8312.575.9811.8912.711.2218.63
Kanoa Igarashi10.1739.2411.218.4311.1610.486.1611.4110.031017.29

 

Bells FS

NAME$ ValueProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
John John Florence1250000014.5125050.00
Mick Fanning450000014.3617525.71
Joel Parkinson800000013.7415152.98
Jordy Smith1100000013.7215073.33
Julian Wilson825000013.6512864.45
Gabriel Medina1050000013.6312782.68
Kelly Slater900000013.5612671.43
Filipe Toledo800000013.3612564.00
Owen Wright850000013.1510382.52
Adriano De Souza825000013.1310280.88
Bede Durbidge325000013.1110132.18
Sebastian Zietz750000012.9310075.00
Joan Duru300000012.928634.88
Jack Freestone400000012.828547.06
Nat Young150000012.668417.86
Conner Coffin625000012.628375.30
Jeremy Flores375000012.468245.73
Connor O'Leary500000012.228161.73
Frederico Morais325000012.218040.63
Wiggolly Dantas325000012.177941.14
Adrian Buchan550000012.177870.51
Kolohe Andino1100000012.1677142.86
Caio Ibelli550000012.117672.37
Ethan Ewing300000012.077540.00
Michel Bourez900000011.9947191.49
Matt Wilkinson975000011.9746211.96
Ezekiel Lau300000011.974566.67
Ian Gouveia350000011.914479.55
Jadson Andre300000011.784369.77
Josh Kerr550000011.7542130.95
Leonardo Fioravanti300000011.534173.17
Miguel Pupo450000011.3440112.50
Stuart Kennedy425000010.9639108.97
Kanoa Igarashi425000010.1738111.84

 

Bells Past Results - R5 onwards

yearwinnerrunner-upsemis (=3rd)quarters (=5th)R5 (=9th)
2016Matt WilkinsonJordy SmithMick Fanning
Italo Ferreira
Nat Young
Wiggolly Dantas
Conner Coffin
Michel Bourez
Masonl Ho
Julian Wilson
Davey Cathels
Caio Ibelli
2015Mick FanningAdriano de SouzaJosh Kerr
Nat Young
Gabriel Medina
Owen Wright
Jordy Smith
Filipe Toledo
Kelly Slater
Joel Parkinson
Jadson Andre
Jeremy Flores
2014Mick FanningTaj BurrowJohn John Florence
Julian Wilson
Adriano de Souza
Kelly Slater
Joel Parkinson
Owen Wright
Gabriel Medina
Adam Melling
Jordy Smith
Freddy Patacchia Jr.
2013Adriano de SouzaNat YoungTaj Burrow
Jordy Smith
Kai Otton
Willian Cardoso
Mick Fanning
Filipe Toledo
Ace Buchan
Josh Kerr
Raoni Monteiro
CJ Hobgood
2012Mick FanningKelly SlaterJeremy Flores
Joel Parkinson
Owen Wright
Josh Kerr
Kai Otton
Jordy Smith
John John Florence
Adriano de Souza
Brett Simpson
CJ Hobgood
2011Joel ParkinsonMick FanningAdriano de Souza
Taj Burrow
Owen Wright
Kelly Slater
Chris Davidson
Jadson Andre
Bede Durbidge
CJ Hobgood
Michel Bourez
Tiago Pires

 

Bells Detailed Event History

Round Placing Points
Final (win) 1st 10
Final (lose) 2nd 8
Semi =3rd 6.5
Quarters =5th 5.2
R5 =9th 4
R3 =13th 1.75
R2 =25th 0.5

*n.b. empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
Surfer201120122013201420152016TotalAverage
Mick Fanning8105.210106.549.78.28
Adriano de Souza6.54105.281.7535.455.91
Jordy Smith6.55.26.545.2835.45.90
Nat Young81.756.55.221.455.36
Conner Coffin5.25.25.20
Joel Parkinson106.51.755.241.7529.24.87
Kelly Slater5.281.755.241.7525.94.32
Owen Wright5.25.20.55.25.221.34.26
Filipe Toledo5.21.755.212.154.05
Caio Ibelli444.00
Italo Ferreira0.56.573.50
John John Florence46.51.751.75143.50
Josh Kerr1.755.241.756.50.519.73.28
Matt Wilkinson1.751.750.51.751.751017.52.92
Wiggolly Dantas0.55.25.72.85
Julian Wilson0.50.51.756.51.754152.50
Jeremy Flores1.756.51.750.540.5152.50
Gabriel Medina0.51.751.7545.21.7514.952.49
Jadson Andre5.21.750.540.511.952.39
Bede Durbidge41.751.750.582.00
Michel Bourez40.50.50.50.55.211.21.87
Sebastian Zietz1.751.751.751.7571.75
Stu Kennedy1.751.751.75
Kanoa Igarashi1.751.751.75
Ace Buchan0.50.540.50.51.757.751.29
Miguel Pupo0.51.750.51.754.51.13
Kolohe Andino1.750.51.750.54.51.13
Jack Freestone00.00

 

 

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Surf-Stats
Editor-in-Chief at Surf-Stats.com
We are surfers and statistics nerds with a passion for fantasy sports. Don't worry, we can't imagine what we look like either.

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