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Billabong Pipe Masters Projections

This data uses the 2014/2015/2016 results and gives a slight weighting to 2016 form within the projections. Many of the less experienced surfers (less reliable data) have skewed projections due to their averages being heavily influenced by this season's results and having no previous experience at this event. Italo, Wiggolly and Asing have only one year's worth of data at this event.

Don't just rely on our projections alone; we suggest that you check the forecast, sort through the columns yourselves and pick out the elements that you believe to be of most importance.

Our full Pipe event article will be up soon. Until then, have fun playing with your teams. This is your last chance to sign up to our WSL Surf-Stats group (password - SS) or the Fantasy Surfer Surf-Stats clubhouse (password – SS) before the seasons' end.

Pipe Projections

AHS = average heat score (using 2014-16 seasons)
EATP = event average total points (WSL game),
EAHS = event average heat score,
Prev AHS = average heat score from previous contest,
4-6' = heat average in waves of 4-6' size,
6-8' = heat average in waves of 6-8' size,
8-10+' = heat average in waves of 8-10+' size,
Reef = average heat score in conditions offering beach break waves,
Left = average heat score in conditions offering left-hander waves,
Right = average heat score in conditions offering right-hander waves,
Left/Right = average heat score in conditions offering both left- and right-hander waves,
PROJ SCORE = total projected score for the event (WSL game)
NAMEAETEAHS2016 AHSAHS4-6'6-8'8-10+'ReefLeftsRightsLeft/RightProj Score
Kelly Slater62.2114.213.8213.9313.7914.8615.9115.3216.0513.7313.14133.98
John John Florence76.6212.8514.7114.1813.8714.9314.8915.0514.9114.514.13131.84
Gabriel Medina111.0212.8814.2813.9714.4514.2713.9714.3714.9513.9713.84106.29
Italo Ferreira86.4413.6613.2713.1613.513.5311.7913.3212.9913.813.52102.55
Joel Parkinson44.8910.3713.4813.1113.9313.0212.2813.2912.814.3912.3780.25
Julian Wilson61.2410.9112.5912.5212.9314.499.5813.4312.3613.9512.5278.48
Jeremy Flores46.839.7112.8412.312.3112.0710.9213.1512.7212.412.0875.68
Adriano De Souza87.4710.061212.9213.0112.8510.9812.0611.6213.7913.0575.02
Ryan Callinan11.9612.5911.2313.5211.2610.8611.312.7759.04
Caio Ibelli11.7911.6411.6211.5211.989.6712.212.1358.69
Sebastian Zietz42.029.613.112.0211.7612.3811.3512.411.6612.7811.5358.68
Filipe Toledo47.3110.2813.112.713.79.639.7310.4710.1214.1614.0458.17
Josh Kerr70.069.7812.3311.912.0211.6110.211.811.8312.0811.843.92
Jack Freestone11.7612.511.979.489.4812.8212.9543.84
Adrian Buchan47.728.6412.7711.8413.1512.7611.1412.3912.5812.0911.6143.73
Jordy Smith17.026.2113.712.4513.0313.379.6611.58.5314.0313.5743.53
Nat Young17.166.9312.3712.3311.9512.9910.8312.5811.5113.112.0443.51
Davey Cathels11.5612.2411.2411.7510.7810.311.8311.5543.3
Kolohe Andino20.295.913.4612.1513.3911.729.5412.0112.9812.3512.6731.43
Conner Coffin11.7512.1212.0912.289.548.5813.6411.8731.34
Stuart Kennedy11.3611.3611.2411.8910.399.9712.9311.5530.99
Jadson Andre18.467.1912.3411.7312.5310.710.3810.8611.1912.3211.7430.54
Kai Otton40.237.361211.8312.2611.4811.0711.3911.3112.7311.4330.35
Kanoa Igarashi11.1912.5110.1611.4110.148.0611.5711.829.99
Michel Bourez35.247.912.0111.3211.4511.1410.2810.799.4613.0210.7719.16
Adam Melling44.2810.6411.210.9611.4612.198.3311.2710.4311.7110.819.02
Matt Banting10.8311.2811.3810.827.179.859.8611.6111.3118.91
Alejo Muniz29.488.3910.8410.6511.039.4911.129.3710.0211.8210.6418.5
Keanu Asing37.217.4411.3610.8911.4510.465.869.579.9511.4111.0218.32
Wiggolly Dantas5.632.8213.111.3410.9311.437.8910.7210.4314.1911.6717.13
Miguel Pupo12.765.0811.5111.0911.619.97.99.569.0812.3611.3616.62
Bede Durbidge26.274.8912.3713.337.1710.4610.0613.9116.53
Matt Wilkinson10.884.3311.6711.0911.910.2410.599.429.4712.6611.716.43
Alex Ribeiro9.277.965.849.348.047.610.568.3413.93

 

Pipe FS Data

*n.b.: surfers values given at current market value
Name$ ValueProj AHSProj Score$1000/point
Kelly Slater650000014.5625026.00
John John Florence1125000014.3317564.29
Gabriel Medina1150000013.815176.16
Italo Ferreira700000013.3215046.67
Joel Parkinson625000012.7412848.83
Julian Wilson900000012.4612770.87
Jeremy Flores450000012.0112635.71
Adriano De Souza975000011.9112578.00
Ryan Callinan300000011.8110329.13
Caio Ibelli500000011.7410249.02
Sebastian Zietz150000011.7410114.85
Filipe Toledo900000011.6310090.00
Josh Kerr575000011.568666.86
Jack Freestone300000011.548535.29
Adrian Buchan500000011.518459.52
Jordy Smith850000011.4583102.41
Nat Young450000011.458254.88
Davey Cathels300000011.398137.04
Kolohe Andino700000011.338087.50
Conner Coffin450000011.297956.96
Stuart Kennedy150000011.177819.23
Jadson Andre375000011.017748.70
Kai Otton450000010.947659.21
Kanoa Igarashi500000010.817566.67
Michel Bourez525000010.6547111.70
Adam Melling150000010.574632.61
Matt Banting400000010.514588.89
Alejo Muniz375000010.284485.23
Keanu Asing350000010.184381.40
Wiggolly Dantas475000010.0842113.10
Miguel Pupo52500009.7841128.05
Bede Durbidge30000009.734075.00
Matt Wilkinson55000009.6639141.03
Alex Ribeiro30000008.23878.95

 

Pipe Surfers' Event History

Round / Placing / Value:
Final (win) / 1st / 10
Final (lose) / 2nd / 8
Semis / 3rd / 6.5
Quarters / 5th / 5.2
R5 / 9th / 4
R3 / 13th / 1.75
R2 / 25th or lower / 0.5

Empty field value denotes injury absence or surfer not on tour
Surfer20112012201320142015TotalAverage
Joel Parkinson8106.51.75430.256.05
Kelly Slater6.56.5101.755.229.955.99
Gabriel Medina5.241.758826.955.39
John John Florence5.21.7585.2424.154.83
Josh Kerr1.7581.756.55.223.24.64
Julian Wilson1.751.755.2101.7520.454.09
Sebastian Zietz5.25.241.7516.154.04
Keanu Asing444.00
Adriano de Souza1.751.751.751015.253.81
Michel Bourez6.50.51.7541.7514.52.90
Jeremy Flores1.7541.75411.52.88
Filipe Toledo0.55.21.757.452.48
Miguel Pupo0.545.21.750.511.952.39
Kai Otton0.50.545.21.7511.952.39
Ace Buchan0.50.56.51.759.252.31
Adam Melling1.750.51.751.755.210.952.19
Nat Young41.750.56.252.08
Alejo Muniz1.750.50.55.27.951.99
Italo Ferreira1.751.751.75
Jordy Smith1.751.750.51.755.751.44
Bede Durbidge0.50.51.751.751.756.251.25
Kolohe Andino1.750.51.750.54.51.13
Jadson Andre0.50.51.750.53.250.81
Matt Wilkinson0.50.50.51.750.53.750.75
Wiggolly Dantas0.50.50.50
Image courtesy of aspwedge.com
Image courtesy of aspwedge.com

 

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