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2015 Pipe Masters – R2 Update

Update: 13 December

Live Projection for the Pipe Masters following R2:

R2 Update, Live Projections

2015 Pipe Masters R2 Points Fantasy Points and Average Heat Score, Live Projected Event Win Percentage and Odds
NameTierWSL Start %FPAHSProj Win %Live Odds
Adam MellingB6%16.648.320.50%200
Adrian BuchanB8%22.511.254.40%23
Adriano de SouzaA22%20.3310.174.80%21
Bede DurbidgeB15%22.842.844.00%25
Brett SimpsonC10%12.76.350.00%
Bruce IronsC0%19.49.700.00%
C.J. HobgoodC30%34.9714.970.90%106
Dusty PayneC8%16.638.320.00%
Filipe ToledoA28%22.0711.046.30%16
Gabriel MedinaA25%32.612.6013.50%7
Glenn HallC3%10.35.150.00%2500
Italo FerreiraA1%40.264.873.30%30
Jack RobinsonC0%5.0614.260.00%
Jadson AndreB8%12.446.220.00%
Jamie O'BrienC0%28.0611.275.80%17
Jeremy FloresA1%45.211.058.10%12
Joel ParkinsonB40%8.1713.335.40%19
John John FlorenceB56%49.3311.599.70%10
Jordy SmithB6%7.1713.063.50%29
Josh KerrB13%45.898.342.80%35
Julian WilsonA24%3.8412.400.60%161
Kai OttonB11%42.739.092.60%38
Keanu AsingB3%23.4112.690.20%455
Kelly SlaterB15%14.75.7010.80%9
Kolohe AndinoB8%10.964.200.00%
Mason HoC0%26.179.330.40%278
Matt WilkinsonB13%3.9414.600.00%
Michel BourezB6%35.834.971.10%89
Mick FanningA53%42.47.245.70%18
Miguel PupoC4%3.446.170.00%
Nat YoungB13%12.14.270.00%
Ricardo ChristieC11%13.67.440.00%
Sebastian ZietzB10%18.1412.520.20%500
Taj BurrowB1%16.132.995.30%19
Wade CarmichaelC0%16.238.780.00%
Wiggolly DantasB20%1.18.060.00%

As the drama is defers,  it compounds;  this anticipation can't be good for my heart.

There's no shortage of potential discussion following the 2015 Pipe Masters' Act II,  a Round that taught every CT invasive a lesson in elimination.  Jamie O'Brien and Mason Ho avoided this massacre following their R1 Heat wins and are the only two INJ Replacement/Wildcards remaining.

As for the CT elite,  we saw seasons and some requalification hopes meet their end.  Here is a sortable table of The Departed,  and their final 2015 statistics for:  Total WSL Fantasy Points,  Average Heat Score,  Total Heats,  Quarter-Finals/Semi-Finlas/Finals Appearances Points and Averages and QSFW.   Nat Young,  unthinkably eliminated in R2 by Glenn Hall,  leads most fields including:  FP (615.5),  Total Heats (41),  and QSFW (7).  He also most likely cost the Surf-Stats.com Fantasy team our Pipe Title.

2015 Stats

Overall Season Stats for Surfers Out of Pipe Masters
NAMEFPAHSHeatsQF AppQF FPQF AHSSF AppSF PtsSF AHSQSFW Power Score
Kolohe Andino422.7212.053000.0000.000
Jadson Andre438.0212.2032113.7413.7400.001
Miguel Pupo375.3511.1229113.7013.70115.6015.603
Brett Simpson335.6911.0125110.5410.54112.9412.943
Matt Wilkinson473.1012.1934113.7613.7618.238.233
Nat Young615.5012.4241339.1413.05227.1313.577
Dusty Payne252.8310.342100.0000.000
Ricardo Christie302.1411.1728111.5011.5000.001
Wiggolly Dantas534.0112.5138329.909.9700.003

Upset no Upsets?

That's how I feel.  Since last night,  I expected some R2 early action at Backdoor given the forecast,  but it didn't appear as though it would live through the morning.  It did,  though.  Backdoor wasn't just open for business - it was firing;  rather than taper off,  it only got better and became an absolute points factory.  Best single wave score?  R2H3 Adam Melling (8.83) - Backdoor.  Best Heat score?  R2H12 Jordy Smith (16.oo) - Backdoor (both waves).  We can use Jordy's Heat vs. Wiggolly Dantas as a summary for the day:  Natural-footer stuck to the right and was handsomely rewarded.  In contrast, goofy-footer tried to play a comfortable frontside,  but failed to execute clean exits and received no love from the Panel.  Pipe was a close-out sale,  those that could capitalize west of the peak won Heats - and they were mostly the regular-footers.

Even though our projection model had Filipe Toledo wining R2H1 84%  over Bruce Irons,  I still didn't think he'd be able to take advantage of Backdoor better than Bruce - and he didn't even stick to Backdoor.  Some are calling Toledo's performance "dominant,"  and I don't want to take anything away from CT #2 (because he was extremely impressive on the Pipe side),  but Irons is equally responsible for losing that Heat;  he struggled to find a rhythm and got crushed - end of Cinderella Story.

To be fair,  there were some upsets - just none with a David and Goliath weight.  Take for example Nat Young vs. Glenn Hall - a dream matchup for us here at Surf-Stats who drafted Nat on all our Fantasy teams.  The Backdoor Effect evened the playing field,  but it wouldn't have created such parity if Nat stuck to his backside.  The temptation of a vacant Pipeline mesmerized every goofy-foot today,  and none could escape the trance.

Synchronized Swimming

You may have noticed an interesting format for R2,  one that put four competitors in the water simultaneously.  Having only four days within the event window to run competition,  it makes sense to save time with this format.  Here's some information you may find helpful.

"Overlapping Heat Format"  is used to condense Heats during an event waiting period (for any number of reasons).  It was implemented for R2 today and ran as follows:

  • Two-man Heats at 40 minutes each
  • Heats overlap,  staggered every 20 minutes
  • Standard priority rules apply not to individual surfers,  but to actual Heats
    • The Heat which began first has absolute priority over the other
    • Deliberate or unsportsmanlike interference can be deemed by the Judges and the surfer in violation will have half of his low-scoring wave deducted
  • Heats can't be restarted
  • The normal judging system (5 Judges,  high and low scores removed,  middle 3 averaged) is replaced by two panels of 3 Judges each (1 for each Heat) and all scores are counted

Maybe with 5 Judges,  Surf-Stats Fantasy pick Jack Robinson would have eked out that Heat against de Souza.  That would have been the case if they didn't run Overlapping Heats,  but then R2H3 would have entered the water 20 minutes later than it actually did and experienced completely different waves.  Are tomorrow's waves already on their way to the North Shore,  World Title fate in hand?  Is the universe infinite?  Are we all just blades of grass in an uncaring wind??

I told you this isn't good for me.

Anyway,  I probably speak for everyone who drafted Robbo outside of Brazil when I say,  "Ah,  come on"  to his last wave score.  I was certain the panel would award Jack the necessary points because,  in my opinion,  they lofted de Souza's previous wave.  Hover for videos to compare for yourself,  but I think the Adriano 8.27 was much more on par with the Robinson 7.33 than scores suggest.  It's certainly better,  but by (nearly) an entire point?  If de Souza scored an 8.27,  Robinson's was an 8.00;  Adriano's carve is awesome,  but the judges hadn't been rewarding those and Robinson's barrel was better.  This is definitely open to argument,  though,  and mine hosts an inherent fantasy bias.

The Other Guys - Cutoff Scenarios

Kolohe blew it today,  no way around that.  He's back on the CT in 2016 via QS top ten anyway,  so maybe he didn't feel compelled to compete too hard(?)  I  know that's not true.  If Kolohe beat Keanu Asing in R2H10,  he would have automatically replaced him on the CT,  freeing up a QS spot for Stuart Kennedy.  Maybe Andino likes Keanu more than Stu?  Either way,  the deed is done and Kolohe has kept Asing on the Tour next year.  At least Miguel Pupo had been eliminated earlier (far later than his new haircut,  which was eliminated in 2004) and Dusty Payne didn't have to stress over the Kolohe Heat;  he,  too,  will face a QS climb if he wants another CT spot.

Here's the new interesting cutoff scenario - Sebastian Zietz is completely in control of his own destiny,  thanks to Jadson Andre.  Andre made his exit this afternoon in 25th place and there's nothing he can do about it.  Now,  regardless of what CT #21 Keanu Asing and CT #22 Michel Bourez do,  Seabass can surpass Jadson by making the QF (5th) - something he's only done 5 times in his career.  With Asing and Bourez both advanced to R3,  Zietz can't overtake either without a 5th place finish anyway,  so it's go big or go back to the QS in 2016.

You Play Ball Like a Girl

Following R2,  R3 was put on hold because WSL Commissioner Kieren Perrow "didn't like the way it looks out there at the moment."  They deemed the surf poor enough to send out the ladies for the Women's Pipe Invitational - a Dream Heat between 2015 WSL Women's Champion Carissa Moore,  Kauai native Tatiana Weston-Webb,  surfer/DJ/actress/ballsier-than-I'll-ever-be Keala Kennelly,  and California's Courtney Conlogue.

In conditions that had the boys complaining during their post-Heat interviews,  Carissa Moore made them all look like kooks on her first wave out of the gate - a blistering 9.17.

Moore would go on to post another 9+ wave score to combo the entire field for the win.  Conlogue finished second (10.5),  Kenelly third (9.23) and Weston-Webb fourth (4.84).  Carissa's 18.6,  by the way,  would have combo'd every single surfer in the Men's R2 as well.

That's all for R2.  #YouCan'tScriptThis,  but today went about as scripted as you could have planned with minimal upsets;  we hope that changes in R3.  Our Tier C LOCK Jamie O'Brien faces off against CT #1 Mick Fanning,  and [at least] an extra day of thinking may not be good for the Prince of the North Shore.  I would have much preferred JOB to just get out there and surf without overanalyzing,  but Mick would have been very dangerous at Backdoor today anyway.  Plus,  I don't get the "overanalyzing" vibe from Jamie-O.

Catch @SurfStats on Twitter for R3!

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Mike
Founder, Former CEO at Surf Stats LLC
Surf Stats LLC Founder and Former CEO, accredited writer with the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, former Editor-in-Chief and author at Surf-Stats.com
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