**John John Florence has withdrawn from the J-Bay Open, replaced by Tomas Hermes and affecting the Heat Draw - New Draw (With Tiers Highlighted)
Injury News for J-Bay and the Fantasy Outlooks Tabs down below. Enjoy!
Injuries Update - 10 July, 2o15
Matt Banting (OUT) - Knee: 10 July, 2015 - Matt Banting is the latest to go down with the Freesurf Injury Bug. He'll be replaced last-minute by local South African Michael February.
Jeremy Flores (OUT) - Facial Lacerations, Minor Fractures, Concussion: 3 July, 2015 - Flores has officially withdrawn from the 2015 J-Bay Open. Alejo Muniz will rejoin the CT as his replacement.
2 July, 2015 - Jeremy Flores is considered doubtful for Jeffreys Bay, stating in a recent interview with Surfline "...I doubt I'll be ready for J-Bay. I am hoping to be 100% for Teahupo'o." This comes as little shock to those following the story and seriousness of Jeremy's horrific Indonesia injury. Monitor the situation moving forward, but don't plan on Flores suiting up for CT #6.
27 June, 2015 - Flores is the latest injury-bug question-mark heading into Jeffreys Bay. He recently took a pretty harsh digger in IDO and required air-lifting for facial lacerations. There is thankfully no brain damage and Flores is expected to make a full recovery, though his status for JBay remains unclear.
John John Florence (OUT) - High Ankle Sprain: 6 July, 2015 - Florence has officially withdrawn from the J-Bay Open. WSL Deputy Commissioner Renato Hickel said in a statement that Florence "...tried to recover up to the last possible day to fly to J-Bay. But as his foot still pretty sore he decided to miss the event and be ready for Tahiti." In his stead, Tomas Hermes (BRA) will get his first CT start of 2015.
27 June, 2015 - John John experienced a high ankle sprain that kept him out of Fiji. He's hopeful, but being vague about injury is never a good sign and his status should be monitored heading into ZAF.
Brett Simpson (PROBABLE) - Back: 2 July, 2015 - Heading into July, Brett Simpson tossed up an Instagram pic of himself snapping a backhander with the comment "Feels great to be back in the water!!" Sufficiently securing his roster spot among the lineup for J-Bay, Simpo can be considered for your fantasy lineups.
27 June, 2015 - It is speculated (yes, mostly by us) that Brett Simpson simply doesn't like big, left-handed, reef breaks such as Cloudbreak and Teahupo'o (given his poor performances and lack of commitment at both locations historically). And after putting up only 7.67 Total Heat Points in a scary looking Margaret River's Box, it makes some sense to us - given that hypothesis - for Simpo to step out of the Fiji circle this year. It's OK Brett, you're just a little bit more human than most of the other CT fellas, and still way more dangerous than us any day. Monitor, but expect Simpson to suit up for more favorable J-Bay conditions.
Michel Bourez (PROBABLE) - Vertebra, Hand: 2 July, 2015 - Bourez took to Instagram June 30th to give us some hope, stating "4 stitches after landed on my fin...im gonna have to deal With it...here I come South Africa" with a picture of his fin-induced laceration. We'll stay wary of his potential performance given all the recent bang-ups, but applaud the Spartan's... well, Spartan attitude.
27 June, 2015 - Bourez will be nearing his original 6 week recovery date around the start of the J-Bay Open, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be surfing it. If he's out for this one Alejo Muniz will continue in his place. We wish a speedy recovery to the Spartan and hope he can return in time, but it was a costly injury that has left him dry for a bit too long; he may need time to get back into a rhythm, even if he's healthy by the 8th.
Jordy Smith (PROBABLE) - Knee: You can forget about Jordy missing Jeffreys Bay. He'll be in the lineup.
And now, the Outlooks....
[xt_tab style="xa-blue" ][xt_item title="JBay WSL Fantasy Surfing Outlook" icon="Select Icon---"]Enjoy our Sortable Conditions AHS Table for J-Bay and scroll down to see the WSL Fantasy Outlook below!
Men's JBay Conditions AHSMen's Average Heat Scores for Conditions: 4-6' Waves, Right Breaks, Right-Left Wave Diff (Look up in Glossary), Point Breaks, Jeffreys Bay Career AHS, and QSFW (See Glossary - Must be Signed In to See Glossary!)
|NAME||Proj TPts||Proj AHS||4-6'||Right||RLD||Point||JBay||QSFW|
|Adriano de Souza||95.87||12.48||13.02||13.78||4.25||13.76||12.8||4|
|John John Florence||71.67||11.95||14.44||14.7||-1.42||15.17||10.87||0|
WSL Fantasy Surfing Outlook
Fiji was a wild ride with an awesome performance put on by the CT Elite! Owen Wright made history with not one, but TWO Perfect Heats - one coming in the Finals against an unlucky Julian Wilson. The State of the CT heading into ZAF has Adriano De Souza in Gold, fellow Brazilian Filipe Toledo checked in at second followed by Owen Wright and Mick Fanning. Owen Wright has two more events this year that will parallel the conditions in which he crafted his Fiji masterpiece. CT #6 is not one of them. Nonetheless it's onward to Jeffreys Bay, a world class, right-hand point-break with some great options across the board for your drafting consideration. This location in the past has shown a handful of standout champions, but we’ll take a look at why you can’t base your drafts solely on historic performance (ahem….Kelly Slater…..).
Tier A Dead Lock: Julian Wilson (12.76 Proj AHS / 99.93 Proj Pts) - Don’t give up on Julian just because he lost the Fiji Final vs. Owen Wright’s second (!!) Perfect Heat. He’s been nothing but ferocious this year and he’ll continue that trend on his frontside at J-Bay. He’s got an above-average Proj AHS heading into this one and his career AHS at Jeffreys is a huge 15.45. Don’t let his 1 QSFW throw you off, Wilson’s been having success in more locations this season than in 2014 and it would appear ZAF will be no different. Get on him. HEAT DRAW: Favorable - Julian draws a potentially pesky Alejo Muniz and struggling Miguel Pupo in R1 - look for him to punch through into R3.
Adraino De Souza (12.48 Proj AHS / 95.87 Proj Pts) OR Filipe Toledo (11.9 Proj AHS / 74.22 Proj Pts) - Based on the projections, the choice would clearly fall in favor of Adriano De Souza, but both of these competitors will find themselves right at home in the conditions on deck. They both put up big-league performances in similar locations this season already, and for that reason (Gold Coast especially), we absolutely throw Toledo into the Tier A mix. As our model continues to improve throughout the season we can be sure that Toledo will continue to outperform it just like at the Gold Coast, and we're almost guaranteed to be in similar conditions again. If we were you, we’d take Filipe over Adriano here: even though he's in second place on the CT, he outranks De Souza's 25 QSFW with a WSL-leading 31 in 2015. HEAT DRAW: De Souza - Medium - Adriano comes in with the Gold and that should have given him the easiest path to R3, but JJF's injury and subsequent withdrawal have forced Kolohe Andino into Adriano's corner for R1, and and Slade Prestwich is being thrown to the wolves without mercy. Toledo - Favorable: Toledo has the ever-dangerous Dane Reynolds in his R1 Heat, so this should be a very cautious pick. The good news is that Dane and Filipe should have no problem in R2 (obviously Toledo with the better odds based on draw).
AVOID: Josh Kerr (11.35 Proj AHS / 49.79 Proj Pts) and Nat Young (10.83 Proj AHS / 47.55 Proj Pts) - These two are on different ends of the reasoning spectrum for our "No-Go" section. Josh Kerr has not impressed us much this year and has failed to break through to a Final - even in his home breaks in AUS. He's tied with Italo Ferreira for 2015 QSFW at 4. Nat Young, though we love him, simply doesn’t have much a chance in this regular-footer heaven. At best, he will be looking to get as many snaps in as possible, but there won’t be much room for variety for the back-siders. Kerr and Young are coming in with career JBay AHS's of 12.03 and 10.21 respectively, so if you feel the absolute need to pick one of them up, make it Kerrzy. HEAT DRAW: Kerr - Unfavorable - Josh is up against two underdog, regular-footed threats in Sebastian Zietz and Dusty Payne - this should have you rock solid on your decision to avoid Kerrzy. Nat Young - Extremely Favorable - Wiggolly Dantas (fellow goofy and non-threat at J-Bay) should be easy to handle for Nat Young in R1 while Adam Melling continues to limp through 2015 as if he's bracing for retirement. Nat should easily find his way to R3 but we're not hopeful on much beyond that.
Potential Sleeper: Taj Burrow (13.21 Proj AHS / 98.57 Proj Pts) - Our model loves Burrow here and there’s no reason you shouldn’t as well - he looks good on paper and has represented well above the bell curve in 2015. Taj owns a 14.28 career AHS in ZAF with a 21 QSFW, plus he eats Point Breaks for breakfast: 14.24 AHS. He’s definitely worth a look. HEAT DRAW: Favorable - Taj doesn't have it quite as easy as he did before Florence's withdrawal, but it's still not a bad situation. He'll face Michel Bourez, who might pose a threat without stitches in his foot (but he does have stitches in his foot) and Brett Simpson.
Tier B Make-or-Break - you know the drill. There’s a lot of goofy-foot pride in the middle pack for this one, almost half of the pot - striking that 7 leaves us with only 9 choices. If you have any urge to draft a goofy surfer here, consider this: Since the event's conception in 1996, there have been absolutely ZERO goofy-footed champions - and only 4/30 JBay finalists have led with their right (Mick Lowe 2002; Damien Hobgood 2003, 2009, Nathan Hedge 2004). We hope that can sway you from a bad decision.
Dead Lock: Jordy Smith (13.4 Proj AHS / 110.17 Proj Pts) - Our model says Jordy will be losing to Joel Parkinson in the Jeffreys Bay Final. In our hearts, we think he’s more likely to win it. Parko’s outstanding projections are heavily weighted towards successes earlier in his career. We wouldn’t count him out, but Jordy certainly gets our nod. He’s got the #1 career JBay AHS at 15.92 and he’ll be surfing in his home country. In his young career, Jordy also already has a mature 30 QSFW, need we say more? HEAT DRAW: (Potentially) Medium - Bede Durbidge and our big-time sleeper pick Ricardo Christie. #JordyForTheWin
Joel Parkinson (14.09 Proj AHS / 110.85 Proj Pts) - Regardless of how we interpret the data, the data says Parko will win JBay. He certainly has shown it to be a habit, his career Jeffreys AHS is up there with the best at 15.66 with a 38 QSFW. His wins have been extremely spaced, though, and there’s certainly no guarantee of a great performance - he took down the event in his Rookie Season back in 1999 and only once more 10 years later in 2009. It's not 2019 yet so we can't make the pattern argument. HEAT DRAW: Extremely Favorable - What a jump in favorability Parko has seen since John John's exit! He'll now square up against goofy footer and professional Sophomore Slumper Gabriel Medina and a yet-to-prove-himself Keanu Asing. We're pulling for everyone in this heat for sure, but Parko absolutely gets the nod given his proven success.
Sebastian Zietz (12.32 Proj AHS / 81.27 Proj Pts) - If you’ve been watching the WSL season so far, you’ve probably been impressed with Zietz at one point or another. He’s definitely on the cusp of a tremendous career and could break out at any moment. There’s some potential for that to be 2015 Jeffreys Bay. His 13.6 career AHS here is very good, and though he’s not yet reached a QF in 2015, our model suggests this could be the event he does. There’s a ton of risk here, but if you want to grab a low start % guy with a huge potential upside, Seabass might be your man. HEAT DRAW: Extremely Favorable - Seabass might be able to take out the recently struggling Josh Kerr in this R1, while Dusty Payne shouldn't be considered much of a threat. Wilder things have happened, though.
AVOID: Kelly Slater (14.41 Proj AHS / 95.09 Proj Pts) - We’ve been taking the bait all year with Kelly, and it’s time we stopped recommending him. By doing so we probably guarantee him a Finals berth, but hey, that’s sports. Our romance with Slater has been running long enough, and we simply have to break up. 2015 has shown a rapid decline in Kelly’s performance across the board. His numbers here are extremely inflated due to statistics dating back to the 90's, and he is nowhere near that surfer any longer. Kelly Slater is the lone rogue in our system causing statistical problems because of longevity - he's simply been around for too long. We would love to see him surf forever, but when he does retire our projection model will be sighing a breath of relief. We see no reason to jump back onto the Kelly Slater Train. HEAT DRAW: Dream - Slater’s got a dream R1 matchup (on paper) against left-foot Matt Wilkinson and (sorry Glenn) an awful Glenn Hall. However , we're assuming the highest probability of an upset is this heat simply based on Slaters 2015 to-date standings and Slater-to-underdog disparity ratio.
Tier C Dead Lock: Dane Reynolds (13.58 Proj AHS / 82.53 Proj Pts) - There’s a lot to love about Dane heading into Jeffreys Bay. First, the rest of the Tier C squad is ugly aside from our sleeper pick, and we’re not talking handsome features. Dane is a big-time power surfer with a unique style suited for long rights. Here, he can display his carving maneuvers and also has the sleeve-card of airs. He hasn’t used this skill advantageously yet in 2015 - a good indicator of competitive maturation. This is a dangerous thought, but it is certainly presenting itself as a reality. Perhaps having a baby has changed Dane's view of the CT and he could be more hungry than ever to make a career of what he does best. HEAT DRAW: Medium - Dane is up against Filipe Toledo in R1, and while he hasn’t seen much CT success yet, we’ll see if the Dane Reynolds 2.0 continues to impress.
Michel Bourez (11.79 Proj AHS / 55.57 Proj Pts) - Bourez could be a great value pickup in Tier C - if he’s healthy enough to surf. You’ll want to monitor the Spartan’s status heading into the event, but he could be a big bottom-barrel score. You’ll also want to monitor his start %, because he might be everyone else’s big score, too. HEAT DRAW: Unfavorable - The injured (foot) Bourez is up against Taj Burrow in R1 and might have a tough time getting by.
Sleeper Pick: Ricardo Christie (8.37 Proj AHS / 67.65 Proj Pts) - Don’t take Christie’s projections to heart here, Jeffreys Bay is the first event where he’ll really be able to strut his stuff. If you’re wondering what his “stuff” is you should check out our Rookie Preview article. He’s got power, and lots of it. What Ricardo has needed (and has not been offered yet in 2015) is a long right wall with a lot of speed. We expect him to have a big event if he can get past the R3 hump. HEAT DRAW: Extremely Unfavorable - Don’t look for Ricardo to be skipping R2 anytime soon, he’s drawn Jordy Smith and Bede Durbidge in R1 and we doubt he can win that face-off. Depending on what R2 throws his way (conditions and opponent) there's a very good chance @RicardoBro could find himself as far as the QF for this one. #CHUR[/xt_item][xt_item title="JBAY Fantasy Surfer Outlook" icon=""]Enjoy our Fantasy Surfer Points Per $ Value Table and don't miss the Fantasy Surfer J-Bay Outlook below!
Men's JBay Fantasy Surfer Pts/$Men's Jeffreys Bay Fantasy Surfer Points Per Dollar Values Table
|NAME||Proj AHS||Proj. FS Pts||FS Price||Pts/$|
|Adriano de Souza||12.48||127||9,500,000||1.34|
|John John Florence||11.95||86||9,000,000||0.96|
Fantasy Surfer Jeffreys Bay Outlook
The CT Event sequence of Fiji - South Africa - Tahiti might be the trickiest 3-comp swing of the year for your Fantasy Surfer lineup. Cloudbreak and Teahupo'o are built for the big goofy-footers on tour, but smack in the middle you've got Jeffreys Bay - a location that has never had a goofy champion in its history. So if you had a great Fiji lineup, you're going to have some decisions to make (half of the top 8 finishers were lefties): Who to keep for TAH and who to drop in favor of a better ZAF? We'll take a look at the top price tier first.....
Mick Fanning ($11.25M / 151 Proj FS Pts) - Mick Fanning is the 2014 JBay defending champion and shouldn't be overlooked here. He's got a proj AHS of 13.63 for the event which is above the mean and the #1 ranked QSFW at 55. Fanno's a proven winner in these grounds, but his price is steep. Even with a solid points projection you should only pick up Mick if you've had him stashed already, otherwise his mild 1.31 Pts/$ may bite you. The Heat Draw against Dane Reynolds is enough to ward us off completely.
Adriano De Souza ($9.5M / 127 Proj FS Pts) - While De Souza didn't have a great event in Fiji, it certainly wasn't in line with his preferred conditions. Jeffreys Bay, however, is a different story. Like most guys we're going to recommend, De Souza is going to make the best of any right-hand wave. If the forecast flattens out and they are forced to run in <4' surf, Adriano is going to grind it out until there's nothing left. For this reason, he's got a very low risk even at a high(ish) price. If you don't already have 2015's leading man on board, he should definitely be up for consideration. De Souza is projected for a 12.48 AHS and 1.34 Pts/$ - seemingly mild but again, right for his price range (where Fanning was not).
Stay Away Alert: Kelly Slater ($10M / 126 Proj FS Pts) - Kelly has been all over place in terms of finishes in 2015 - and none of those places have been the Finals, let alone a W. The decline in Slater's performance has finally taken hold and we don't expect much for the remainder of the season. We absolutely wanted Kelly to go out with a bang, maybe even ring in #12, but it looks like that ship has unfortunately sailed. He'll likely be close enough to his Proj AHS of 14.41, but we've come to terms with Slater's inability to out-duel the young guns. Until he proves otherwise, he can't be picked up for any contest - especially given his outrageous price tag. As always, we hope we're wrong about Kelly Slater and he turns the disappointment into a winning run, but there's nothing in the numbers from this year that suggests he'll do so.
Owen Wright ($9.25M / 101 Proj FS Pts) and Julian Wilson ($8.25M / 150 Proj FS Pts) - If you had both of them on your squad for Fiji, congratulations and well done! (Shout out to Surf-Stats Member Benjamin who called it!) Obviously we know Owen Wright was the better bet, but for Jeffreys that looks to be Julian Wilson. He's got a definite edge as a regular-footer and his 1.82 Pts/$ is better than Wright's 1.09. That's got all to do with price, which is the name of the game. Owen's tag (rightfully) jumped after CT #5, but if he fails to breach the QF (and depending on who does), his price could fall again after JBay. Our advice would be to play that chance and drop him and hopefully reacquire for Tahiti at a pre-Fijian price. Julian Wilson, on the other hand, looks to be a great value play for CT #7 and for the rest of the season - if you've been riding him to this point, there's no reason to let him go now.
Middle of the Road Prices and High Values at the Bottom
LOCK IN: Jordy Smith ($7.25M / 250 Proj FS Pts) - Jordy has had an absolutely scorching career in his home break - a #1 ranked 15.92 JBay AHS to be exact - and while Joel Parkinson seems to have our projection model's attention, we're giving it all to Smith in 2015 South Africa. With more upside than you can shake a stick at and a price that is closer to Bede Durbidge than Gabriel Medina, everyone and their mother should have Jordy representing - #1 ranked Pts/$ at a huge 3.45 to boot. His 4th Ranked QSFW stands at 30, a very impressive feat considering he's only competed at Jeffreys 5 times, while his 3 QSFW superiors (Fanno, Parko and Slater) average 13 JBay appearances a piece. Did we mention Smith's price tag is <$7.5M? Get on it!
Filipe Toledo ($7.75M / 100 Proj FS Pts) - Toledo has shown that he does have flaws (last year that would have been a strange statement, huh?) and is not the universal juggernaut across all arenas as he projected after CT #1. But while Filipe may have some work to do in bigger, left-breaking locations, Jeffreys suits him just fine. Toledo will be similar to Adriano De Souza in that if the waves lose size, he'll be right there to take advantage. He's is also capable of bringing a top-of-the-line air game even in overhead surf and his heats will definitely be exciting at the least. 1.29 Pts/$ may not be much, but there's certainly a good amount of upside to combat the minimal risk involved. Filipe is only projected to hit 11.9 for AHS and that could be due to his career JBay AHS - an ice cold 9.52 -so take that as you will.
In a Pinch: Brett Simpson ($3M / 76 Proj FS Pts) - Obviously Brett Simpson is not going to win a title this year; he's not going to win Jeffreys Bay either, but you should at least consider him a potential R3 guy in the low price deck. Jeffreys suits a physically larger, natural-foot surfer, and Simpo fits that much of the bill at least. For $3M you almost can't go wrong, but he does have to get out of R2, so we'll see where the dice land for his matchup (pray for a leftfoot). By the way, ONLY consider Brett if you're really struggling with budget and already have Dane Reynolds - he may not be too appealing, but that extra cash could be more wisely spent elsewhere while minimizing risk/$.
Sleeper Pick: Ricardo Christie ($3.5M / 84 Proj FS Pts) - Here comes our #BoldPrediction for JBay - it's a QF berth for the ever-patient Ricardo Christie. Jeffreys right-hand point-break is 100% what the doctor ordered for the Christie. If you've seen any of his videos or magazine spreads (they are few, but they are out there), you know that he's a big power surfer and likes to sculpt water off a good wave face. We've been waiting for ZAF to recommend Christie and the time has finally come (see Rookie Preview Article), look for what could be the best event of his debut Tour. *This whole prediction rests entirely in the hands of Ricardo's R2 matchup (as we guarantee he will be there), which might be a high seeded goofy-foot via right-foot upset; should he get through that, Christie has a real shot at doing some damage. His 8.37 Proj AHS is likely due to the Gold Coast and Bells Beach events (where Taj beat him out of R2 each time). Those were similar conditions so it may look as though you should be worried, but RicardoBro's broken through that barrier and seen some progress in 2015 - regardless of what the standings say. #Chur!
Draft. Dane. Reynolds. ($1.5M / 38 Proj FS Pts) - Dane is on his way back to the tour. He has a child now and life needs a bit more stability than just telling your girlfriend you want to make Super8 movies all day. Reynolds is finally feeling the weight of (gasp) responsibility - and he needs to make more of a living. Lucky for him, it only means surfing more and with even the slightest bit of motivation, Dane has proven to be one of the deadliest contenders out there. Good luck to all who stand in his way should Dane envision his newborn before every Heat. 13.58 Proj AHS, 14.12 career JBay AHS and a 4 QSFW - all without trying. At that price, he's one you can't pass up - especially since he might find a place on the CT full time. Imagine getting a tour motivated Dane Reynolds at $1.5M? We're drooling - are you drooling? Don't miss that chance.[/xt_item][/xt_tab]
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